Brexit consequences

chaggle
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by chaggle »

The EU has published some words about what will happen at the end of the transition period.

https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/eu-launc ... dB17JAJE14

According to the article...
The document is an ominous and grim portent of the new reality for many sectors and the “far reaching” changes that await us next year. It puts the blame for the coming shock squarely on the British government.

“Negotiations so far have shown little progress” the EU says and adds that:

“The choices made by the United Kingdom’s government on the future relationship and on not extending the transition period mean that these inevitable disruptions will occur as of 1 January 2021 and risk compounding the pressure that businesses are already under due to the COVID-19 outbreak.”

The 35-page document goes on to explain that “these broad and far-reaching changes, will arise under any scenario [emphasis in the original], regardless of the outcome of negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom.”

So, what are some of the key points, part of the far-reaching changes that will apply regardless as from 1 January next year?

.....
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con
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bindeweede
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Re: Brexit consequences

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"What on earth is going on?"

Britain is Back on the Road to the Brexit Cliff-edge. Is anyone Even in the Driving Seat?



Jonathan Lis, deputy director of the pro-EU think tank British Influence and a political writer and commentator, attempts to answer his questions.

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/07/23/brit ... g-the-car/
Tony.Williams
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Re: Brexit consequences

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Like all good articles on the present situation, this is deeply depressing but not surprising. We are living though a slow-motion car crash, with no means of stopping or steering the vehicle.

What on earth has happened to this country over the last five years? Just about everything seems to have gone wrong, one false step at a time. I am frankly embarrassed to be British. I keep hoping that I'll wake up one morning and discover that this was all a very long-running nightmare but no, BoJo the incompetent fool is still grinning vacuously and spouting the meaningless slogans which are his substitute for sound government.
chaggle
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Re: Brexit consequences

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Yes - embarrassed to be British.

I was brought up English but my genetic heritage is largely unknown.

Last year I decided to do some finding out. My hope was that I had Irish roots so that like many I would be able to apply for an Irish passport.

Turns out I'm Welsh.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con
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Re: Brexit consequences

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I see that Johnson is now admitting the possibility that the Corvid-19 crisis might have been handled differently, but it wasn't fully understood. No doubt he is seeking to pre-empt the criticism which any enquiry is bound to produce. However, he is avoiding the point that the criticism is not based on hindsight - anyone can be wise after the event - but on comparing the UK's handling of the crisis with that of other countries. The death toll here is a damning verdict.
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Re: Brexit consequences

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https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-st ... 1-6763530
Boris Johnson’s ‘optimistic fizz’ will keep the UK together, insists Dominic Raab
Words fail me.... :fp
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bindeweede
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by bindeweede »

Today's latest from Chris Grey. As usual, genuinely good news is hard to find.

"The Brexit screw tightens "
Almost since the day of the Referendum, the Brexit process has gone round in circles with the same issues resurfacing, and the same contradictions and paradoxes recurring. That continues to be the case, but the repetitions can be misleading in two ways. One is that with each re-run some new evidence emerges to re-enforce the underlying issue or contradiction. The other is that, as the end of the transition period gets closer, each iteration of the circle makes the matter in question more urgent. In the past, I’ve used the metaphor of the Mobius strip to capture these repetitions, but perhaps a better image is that of a thread being screwed inexorably tighter.
https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.co ... htens.html
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Re: Brexit consequences

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Yes. Every week I ponder whether it's worth reading Chris Grey's excellent blog given that I usually end up depressed and infuriated.
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bindeweede
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Re: Brexit consequences

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"U.K. Races to Fix ‘Critical Gaps’ in Brexit Border Plan"
Boris Johnson’s officials are urgently working to avert a major border crisis when the U.K. leaves the European Union’s trade regime, amid warnings vital government IT systems may not be ready in time.

According to a leaked document, ministers are asking hauliers and other industry groups for help to avoid chaos at the border when the Brexit transition period expires at the end of the year.

But with just four months to go, the government’s preparations still have “critical gaps” while some parts of blueprint are “unmanageable,” the document said.

The warnings are contained in a government official’s note of a meeting with representatives of the logistics industry, who set out their grave concerns over the dangers ahead.

The memo, circulated by the Cabinet Office’s Border and Protocol Delivery Group, lists 13 key risks to be flagged to ministers, including a lack of contingency planning in case things go wrong, and inadequate time to prepare. High on the list of concerns were the proliferation of new IT systems and the fact some of these are still being developed with just four months until they’re needed.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ium-europe

(Access to the Bloomberg article might be restricted.)
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Re: Brexit consequences

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This government (so-called) must be aiming for the record for the longest, most excruciating and entirely predictable car crash in history.
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Re: Brexit consequences

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Some extracts from Chris Grey's latest blog post: https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.co ... chool.html
a different way of stating the Brexiters’ negotiating conundrum is this: whatever benefits the EU has economically, they all come at the price of sovereignty – we want sovereignty and we don’t care what it costs – but actually it’s cost free – or it would be if the EU was reasonable and would agree to what we want – then we’d have the exact same benefits as before – but those benefits come at the price of sovereignty - so if they agree to what we want then it isn’t sovereignty, which is what we want at all costs. This, which has always been the background to, and in many ways incorporated into, the UK’s official negotiating position, effectively makes any negotiated outcome impossible.
.....
If Johnson strikes a deal of any sort, then the Ultras within and outside his party will decry it for having compromised sovereignty. If he doesn’t strike a deal, then that won’t just be an end to matters but the beginning of fresh – and very urgent and difficult - negotiations which will be caught in the same insoluble loops and conundrums of the last four years of Brexit.

There is therefore no scenario that won’t have Brexiters saying ‘this is not what Brexit was meant to be’ and there is no scenario in which they will say ‘now we have what we always wanted’. Not only will they denounce any deal, but If there is the no deal ‘clean Brexit’ the most extreme call for they will say that the UK could have had a perfect deal but for betrayal by May and the remainers, and the intransigence of the EU. And deal or no deal (but especially no deal) they will step up their agitation to renege on the Withdrawal Agreement as a price not worth paying.

That is really worth reflecting upon. No matter how much pain Brexit causes the UK it is never going to stop the Brexiters complaining. David Cameron once famously called on his party to “stop banging on about Europe”. That didn’t happen, and so the Referendum was meant to put the issue to bed. When that was won by Brexiters, it might have been thought that that, surely, would put an end to matters. But it didn’t, and nothing will, no matter what is or is not agreed in the coming months. The Tory psychodrama about Europe, into which they have dragged the entire nation, is far from over.
chaggle
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by chaggle »

Tony.Williams wrote: Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:50 am Some extracts from Chris Grey's latest blog post: https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.co ... chool.html
a different way of stating the Brexiters’ negotiating conundrum is this: whatever benefits the EU has economically, they all come at the price of sovereignty – we want sovereignty and we don’t care what it costs – but actually it’s cost free – or it would be if the EU was reasonable and would agree to what we want – then we’d have the exact same benefits as before – but those benefits come at the price of sovereignty - so if they agree to what we want then it isn’t sovereignty, which is what we want at all costs. This, which has always been the background to, and in many ways incorporated into, the UK’s official negotiating position, effectively makes any negotiated outcome impossible.
.....
If Johnson strikes a deal of any sort, then the Ultras within and outside his party will decry it for having compromised sovereignty. If he doesn’t strike a deal, then that won’t just be an end to matters but the beginning of fresh – and very urgent and difficult - negotiations which will be caught in the same insoluble loops and conundrums of the last four years of Brexit.

There is therefore no scenario that won’t have Brexiters saying ‘this is not what Brexit was meant to be’ and there is no scenario in which they will say ‘now we have what we always wanted’. Not only will they denounce any deal, but If there is the no deal ‘clean Brexit’ the most extreme call for they will say that the UK could have had a perfect deal but for betrayal by May and the remainers, and the intransigence of the EU. And deal or no deal (but especially no deal) they will step up their agitation to renege on the Withdrawal Agreement as a price not worth paying.

That is really worth reflecting upon. No matter how much pain Brexit causes the UK it is never going to stop the Brexiters complaining. David Cameron once famously called on his party to “stop banging on about Europe”. That didn’t happen, and so the Referendum was meant to put the issue to bed. When that was won by Brexiters, it might have been thought that that, surely, would put an end to matters. But it didn’t, and nothing will, no matter what is or is not agreed in the coming months. The Tory psychodrama about Europe, into which they have dragged the entire nation, is far from over.
All so true except maybe the bit I've highlighted.

I don't know that Brexiters will go that way as it will show them to have been wrong.

I think there is a chance that they will say, amongst the smoking ruins - 'There - we told you it would be OK'.

But who knows... :con
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con
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bindeweede
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Re: Brexit consequences

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Opinion: Can the government breach the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement?


This recently published video from David Allen Green.


(To switch to full screen, click the Full screen icon in the bottom corner of the video player.

To exit out of full screen, press Esc on your keyboard or click the Full screen icon again.)

Tony.Williams
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams »

Chris Grey is particularly scathing this week about the Internal Market Bill (IMB): https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com
In short, there’s no reason to think that the EU is minded to punish the UK in this way, even if it was it couldn’t, even if it could the UK has no need to break international law to respond to it, and even if it did need to the IMB doesn’t provide the means.
Quite by chance I switched on the TV last Monday as Ed Miliband was giving the opposition's response to the Bill. I have never been a fan of MiniMili but he gave a great performance, combining relentlessly logical demolition of the case for the IMB with a barnstorming delivery. Johnson was looking depressed and uncomfortable throughout. The text of the speech is here: https://labour.org.uk/press/full-text-o ... rket-bill/ although it's more fun to watch it.
chaggle
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by chaggle »

Yes - Miliband was very impressive.

It'll make no difference. They have a huge majority and neither moral nor ethical conscience.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con
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