Brexit consequences

Tony.Williams
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams »

Now Brexit is inevitable following the landslide Tory victory, it will be interesting (if depressing) to see what happens. I think it's worthwhile to repeat below the very first post which started this thread straight after the 2016 referendum result. All of the issues I raised then have yet to be resolved, although there are some alarming indications (e.g. the car makers, and Scotland).
Tony Williams wrote:
Sat Jun 25, 2016 2:05 pm
Now the decision has been taken, we might take a sceptical look at the likely range of possibilities.

Here's a start at identifying the extremes (with all but the binary choices, there are various "muddling through" options in between):

Consequences for the UK - economic:

1. The Leavers were right, and once the initial turbulence has declined the UK's economy will accelerate away towards those broad sunlit uplands we are promised, with all other countries falling over themselves to offer us favourable free-trade deals as soon as possible, and the UK becoming once again an industrial as well as financial power-house released from the shackles of the EU.

2. The Remainers were right: new trade deals prove very hard to negotiate, the EU takes a tough line as they are scared of other members following suit, major companies with branches in the UK (including the car-makers: Nissan, Toyota, Honda, Vauxhall, BMW's Mini and Rolls-Royce, VW's Bentley) gradually shift future investment elsewhere, and the GDP remains permanently depressed and in fact declines steadily.

Consequences for the UK - immigration:

i. The UK rapidly installs far more effective border controls and invests in the Coastguard to provide a flotilla of vessels to blast immigrant boats with water cannon etc, preventing them from landing. ID cards are introduced to allow monitoring of who's entitled to be here. Immigration drops to the tens of thousands.

ii. France terminates the Le Touquet agreement by which travellers to the UK are vetted on French territory before being allowed to board Eurostar trains and ferries. Instead, they wave everyone through and make no attempt to stop small boats setting off to the UK packed with immigrants. The UK's border controls become completely swamped and unable to cope - even if they manage to find and stop all illegal immigrants, they will still be on British soil and entitled to have their claims considered on an individual basis - and of course they won't have any passports or other ID documents and refuse to give their nationality. Immigration is even less controllable than it is now.

Consequences for the UK - political:

A. Scotland decides to hold another referendum at around the same time as the rest of the UK leaves the EU. Not a simple matter, as the tax income from oil has tumbled to a small fraction of what it was a year or so ago, and the EU would probably insist that Scotland signs up to the same package as all other new entrants - which includes accepting Schengen and the Euro. If the Scots nevertheless vote to leave, we will have a land border which will need patrolling.

B. Another issue is Northern Ireland. Like the Scots, they are going be forced to leave against the wishes of a clear majority. The option of a referendum on NI joining with the Republic to create a united Ireland seems an extremely remote possibility - but then, the same could have been said of Brexit not that long ago.

Consequences for the EU:

a. Frightened by the possibility of Brexit starting a trend, the EU focuses on getting its house in order and imposes stricter control of the Euro while devolving all but essential powers to the states. It forges ahead economically, leaving an isolated UK trailing in its wake.

b. Brexit stimulates the current rise in nationalism in several EU countries and the EU gradually falls apart, suffering a significant decline in GDP (which incidentally hurts the UK as well, as it would shrink the size of our main market).

Thoughts....?

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bindeweede
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Re: Brexit consequences

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Ian Dunt's summary of the UK's latest situation, with some predictions.
Two good things came from the election result. You had to search for them in the great expanse of despair in which we found ourselves, but they were there.

First, it forced Labour to change its leader. That is an unalloyed good. All of the candidates are better than Jeremy Corbyn. Even Rebecca Long-Bailey, who has really very little to recommend her, would be a significant improvement.

Second, it meant that the Brexiters finally have to own their project. They have a massive majority. The withdrawal agreement bill zoomed through its Commons stages this week. There's no more Leavers vs Remainers, no more parliament vs government. They're in control. And that means this is all on them.
https://politics.co.uk/blogs/2020/01/10 ... hem-own-it

Tony.Williams
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Re: Brexit consequences

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bindeweede wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:51 pm
Ian Dunt's summary of the UK's latest situation, with some predictions.

Second, it meant that the Brexiters finally have to own their project. They have a massive majority. The withdrawal agreement bill zoomed through its Commons stages this week. There's no more Leavers vs Remainers, no more parliament vs government. They're in control. And that means this is all on them.
Sadly, I rather doubt that. There is one other major player apart from the Brexiteers; the EU.

I expect that, in parallel with the UK negotiating team which will be going through the detail of the future trade agreement, there will be another team whose specific role in the event of problems arising (as they inevitably will), will be to prepare the case for placing the blame on the EU for its intransigence.

"intransigence" in this context being defined as "any failure to instantly grant BoJo anything he asks for".

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bindeweede
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by bindeweede »

Ian Dunt's latest lengthy, detailed and depressing article -


Brexit 2020: Everything you need to know about Boris Johnson's trade deal nightmare

https://politics.co.uk/blogs/2020/01/23 ... son-s-trad

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Matt »

bindeweede wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:38 pm
Ian Dunt's latest lengthy, detailed and depressing article -


Brexit 2020: Everything you need to know about Boris Johnson's trade deal nightmare

https://politics.co.uk/blogs/2020/01/23 ... son-s-trad
Very entertaining.
Did read a silver lining article the other day
https://www.bovill.com/london-set-to-re ... k-offices/

Tony.Williams
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Re: Brexit consequences

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Good article by Dunt - I've bookmarked that for future reference.

There's a response to the Bovill article in Chris Grey's latest blog post: https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.co ... olicy.html:
Certainly there was much Brexiter excitement about a Reuters’ report this week that more than a thousand EU financial firms are to open new offices in London because of Brexit. But, alas, beneath the headline lay a different, more complex and less positive story – that, precisely in order to cope with the separation of regulatory regimes (i.e. the anticipated shift from ‘passporting’ to ‘equivalence’), these firms were establishing London offices. This would create an estimated 2,400 jobs. There was some ambiguity in the report as to whether this was across the headline 1000+ firms (<2.4 jobs per firm) or just across 300 of them (8 jobs per firm) but, either way, these are presumably ‘brass plate’ operations for registration purposes, not substantive operational moves.

Thus, as the report confirmed, it only mitigates the flow of jobs the other way. For example, just this week investment bank JP Morgan announced the latest phase of its relocation from London to Paris, where hundreds of its staff will be amongst the estimated 4000 from across the financial services who by the end of the year will have moved to Paris alone, with Dublin, Frankfurt and Amsterdam also pulling in jobs (and business and taxes).

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Matt »

Indeed, every silver lining has a cloud...

Tony.Williams
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Re: Brexit consequences

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Matt wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:14 pm
Indeed, every silver lining has a cloud...
...and this one will be pissing on us for a long time to come... :gh

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Matt »

It's a Cumulonimbecile!

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bindeweede
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by bindeweede »

Chris Grey's latest and lengthy blog post, with more personal reflections than is usual.

A day to mourn
It’s not entirely far-fetched to imagine that the Brexit McCarthyism that has been immanent since the beginning will end up becoming a matter of State. We’ve already travelled further down that road than many would have thought possible a few years ago, with civil servants traduced, judges denounced as enemies of the people, a government minister demanding to know what universities are teaching about Brexit, and constant attempts to subvert parliament even to the point of trying to suspend it from sitting.

So I mourn the country we have already lost, and fear for the one to come. For, dark as today is for so many of us, there may well be far darker days ahead.
https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.co ... mourn.html

chaggle
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by chaggle »

What are we all doing at 11pm?

I'll be pushing out Zeds.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

Tony.Williams
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Re: Brexit consequences

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Yep - I was dozing off at that time. I must admit I had forgotten about it, until I heard a single, distant firework which puzzled me until I remembered...

Matt
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Re: Brexit consequences

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Alas in this corner of Essex I spent 11pm cuddling an anxious border collie who was distressed at the fireworks.

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Re: Brexit consequences

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Chris Grey continues his analyses, this week focusing on the need for the government to stop campaigning and start governing: https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.co ... g-and.html
The first and most important thing that would have to change is for Boris Johnson, his government, and all the Brexiter commentators and advisers to stop lying. If they are serious about Brexit they need to face up to the realities of what it entails and that means telling the truth to themselves and others.

To take an example from this week. Hardly had the celebrations ended than Johnson was reported to be “infuriated” that the EU had “reneged” on its commitments to strike a ‘Canada- style’ free trade deal by now insisting on ‘Level Playing Field’ (LPF) commitments in terms of state aid, workers’ rights, environmental standards and so on. But that this was the EU’s position has been clear for at least a year and, more importantly, was set out in the text of the Political Declaration (paragraph 77) that Johnson himself signed. It’s this kind of constant gaslighting that would need to stop.
I must admit I learned a new term: "gaslighting"!

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by bindeweede »

News in from Gibraltar.
EU Parliament votes to support Spain's veto on Gibraltar

The Spanish MEP Esteban Gonzalez Pons has told the European Parliament that Spain will defend its own priorities post-Brexit including the ‘decolonisation of Gibraltar’. This comes as the European Parliament today voted to support Spain's right to veto any agreement between the EU and the UK over Gibraltar. This formed part of the text embracing the key positions of EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier.

In the first plenary session since the UK left the EU, the remaining 27 members set out their demands ahead of talks on the future UK-EU relationship.

Spanish MEP Esteban Gonzalez Pons was never going to let the grass grow beneath his feet. He predictably wasted no time in the EU's plenary session to call for the decolonisation of Gibraltar and to remind his fellow MEPs that Brexit means Brexit.
https://www.gbc.gi/news/eu-parliament-v ... -gibraltar

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