Brexit consequences

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Tony Williams
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Brexit consequences

Post by Tony Williams » Sat Jun 25, 2016 1:05 pm

Now the decision has been taken, we might take a sceptical look at the likely range of possibilities.

Here's a start at identifying the extremes (with all but the binary choices, there are various "muddling through" options in between):

Consequences for the UK - economic:

1. The Leavers were right, and once the initial turbulence has declined the UK's economy will accelerate away towards those broad sunlit uplands we are promised, with all other countries falling over themselves to offer us favourable free-trade deals as soon as possible, and the UK becoming once again an industrial as well as financial power-house released from the shackles of the EU.

2. The Remainers were right: new trade deals prove very hard to negotiate, the EU takes a tough line as they are scared of other members following suit, major companies with branches in the UK (including the car-makers: Nissan, Toyota, Honda, Vauxhall, BMW's Mini and Rolls-Royce, VW's Bentley) gradually shift future investment elsewhere, and the GDP remains permanently depressed and in fact declines steadily.

Consequences for the UK - immigration:

i. The UK rapidly installs far more effective border controls and invests in the Coastguard to provide a flotilla of vessels to blast immigrant boats with water cannon etc, preventing them from landing. ID cards are introduced to allow monitoring of who's entitled to be here. Immigration drops to the tens of thousands.

ii. France terminates the Le Touquet agreement by which travellers to the UK are vetted on French territory before being allowed to board Eurostar trains and ferries. Instead, they wave everyone through and make no attempt to stop small boats setting off to the UK packed with immigrants. The UK's border controls become completely swamped and unable to cope - even if they manage to find and stop all illegal immigrants, they will still be on British soil and entitled to have their claims considered on an individual basis - and of course they won't have any passports or other ID documents and refuse to give their nationality. Immigration is even less controllable than it is now.

Consequences for the UK - political:

A. Scotland decides to hold another referendum at around the same time as the rest of the UK leaves the EU. Not a simple matter, as the tax income from oil has tumbled to a small fraction of what it was a year or so ago, and the EU would probably insist that Scotland signs up to the same package as all other new entrants - which includes accepting Schengen and the Euro. If the Scots nevertheless vote to leave, we will have a land border which will need patrolling.

B. Another issue is Northern Ireland. Like the Scots, they are going be forced to leave against the wishes of a clear majority. The option of a referendum on NI joining with the Republic to create a united Ireland seems an extremely remote possibility - but then, the same could have been said of Brexit not that long ago.

Consequences for the EU:

a. Frightened by the possibility of Brexit starting a trend, the EU focuses on getting its house in order and imposes stricter control of the Euro while devolving all but essential powers to the states. It forges ahead economically, leaving an isolated UK trailing in its wake.

b. Brexit stimulates the current rise in nationalism in several EU countries and the EU gradually falls apart, suffering a significant decline in GDP (which incidentally hurts the UK as well, as it would shrink the size of our main market).

Thoughts....?

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chaggle
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by chaggle » Sat Jun 25, 2016 1:40 pm

Tony Williams wrote: Thoughts....?
I haven't stopped thinking about all of this - I wish I could.

One thing is that although both Northern Ireland and Scotland voted to remain, I think the similarity stops there.

The Scots have wanted independence for some time because they hate us (or they did, I think they now feel sorry for us).

The Norn Irish on the other hand have always been more UKdian than even the English. I can't see that love being eroded enough by this debacle to cause a split.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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Abdul Alhazred
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Abdul Alhazred » Sun Jun 26, 2016 5:44 pm

Yes, that one.

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bindeweede
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by bindeweede » Sun Jun 26, 2016 9:46 pm

Yes, there is a lot of mixed stuff going round about this proposed second referendum. Some expats are saying they didn't receive their postal votes, so want a second ref. And Farage will say anything at any time to promote his agenda. http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/n ... 2c56393f12

I'm not claiming any expertise. I'll just express my personal opinion. By presenting the electorate with this referendum, called, in my opinion, for the benefit of the Tory party, rather than anything else, Cameron has divided the whole country and the result is a state of apparent paralysis, with the Leave camp having no plan as what to do next.

And the result of the referendum is not legally binding. Whether politically or morally is another issue.

Tony writes much more intelligently than me, and I get a bit emotionally involved, but the current situation is an absolute effing mess.

ETA. Here is a useful summary. http://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/ ... anarchy-uk

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Matt » Mon Jun 27, 2016 12:00 am

Looks like Boris is setting out his stall for leadership under the banner of a very soft Brexit

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06 ... --and-alw/

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chaggle
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by chaggle » Mon Jun 27, 2016 7:27 am

I've just been told by a Brexiteer that this mess is all the remainers' fault for not winning.

Really - I'm not kidding.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Matt » Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:21 pm

chaggle wrote:I've just been told by a Brexiteer that this mess is all the remainers' fault for not winning.

Really - I'm not kidding.
He's got a point. I for one was overconfident and thought I didn't need to do anything to get my opinion out there or engage in fractious facebook debates challenging the propaganda spread by friends and family. I thought there's no need to sully myself with the pig wrestling (though I did succumb to the temptation the once) I was mostly concerned with not losing friends.

I wouldn't be surprised if Jeremy Corbyn's reasons for staying so quiet were a similar desire to simply watch the Tories rip themselves apart whilst not getting dragged down into the squabble.

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chaggle
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by chaggle » Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:57 am

Options:
  • Ignore the referendum

    Re-run the referendum

    Hold a single-issue general election

    Produce a fudge solution

    Just leave

    Any others?
This has been mooted...

A referendum on a new relationship with the EU.

It is not a re-run of the first referendum - it is a new referendum on what happens next.

A deal or structure by which we will go forward will be formulated. This will specify our proposed (or agreed I'm not sure) new relationship with the EU.

There will be two options in the referendum: Accept OR Do Not Accept the proposed terms.

Any thoughts?
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

Tony Williams
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony Williams » Tue Jun 28, 2016 11:15 am

chaggle wrote:
There will be two options in the referendum: Accept OR Do Not Accept the proposed terms.

Any thoughts?
What happens if the terms are rejected? Do we just get booted out with no agreement (clue: if you think things are chaotic now...), or do we reapply to join (without our current concessions)?

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chaggle
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by chaggle » Tue Jun 28, 2016 11:22 am

The accepted way to proceed under those circumstances is to stay with the status quo. :) :thumb:

I think it's a goer.

After all it would hardly be fair on the leavers to simply impose a new deal without consulting them would it?

It has the added advantage that the proposed new deal could be put together very quickly.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony Williams » Tue Jun 28, 2016 11:34 am

The problem is one of timing:

The EU has made it plain that they are not going to start negotiating until Article 50 is triggered, starting the two-year countdown.

We will not know what the terms on offer will be until very close to the two-year limit (at best).

There is no provision in the Treaty for Article 50 withdrawal to be revoked once it has been initiated.

So the "status quo" would be withdrawal without agreement once the two-year limit is up, unless all 27 other EU members agree to extend it.

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chaggle
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by chaggle » Tue Jun 28, 2016 12:28 pm

The status quo as it stands right now is that we are full members of the EU - that's the status quo I'm talking about.

There has been talk of parliament ignoring the referendum and there has been talk of re-running it. Both of these are dodgy in the extreme.

This way we will have at least attempted to fulfill the aim of the referendum result. If they don't like it -
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony Williams » Tue Jun 28, 2016 12:38 pm

chaggle wrote:The status quo as it stands right now is that we are full members of the EU - that's the status quo I'm talking about.

There has been talk of parliament ignoring the referendum and there has been talk of re-running it. Both of these are dodgy in the extreme.

This way we will have at least attempted to fulfill the aim of the referendum result. If they don't like it -
We can do whatever we like in the way of ignoring or re-running referendums (not that I think that either would be a good idea) until we invoke Article 50. That then starts the timer running for the UK's departure and there does not appear to be any way of stopping it. So if we want to stay in the EU we must avoid triggering Article 50. But until we do, the EU isn't interested in starting negotiations, according to what they seem to be saying. So what you are proposing seems to fall foul of Catch 22.

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Matt » Tue Jun 28, 2016 2:36 pm

Given the referendum result I think we should just leave and negotiate a preferential trade agreement with the EU. The idea of a free market without free movement of labour is not achievable but it's important that the rights of current migrants be secured. As far as the EU is concerned a free market without free movement is a contradiction in terms. And once we have a free market in labour it's almost a given that we need unified labour laws and that's where it's unacceptable for pretty much all of the 52%.

As part of the 48% I'd rather have not left but now that the result's in I feel it important to democracy that we honour the decision. Democracy isn't about giving the right decision every time. It's about the consent of the governed and that gets badly damaged when the people speak and are overturned by an elite that know better.

I don't think that relegating our membership of the common market to Norway or Switzerland style levels of involvement will make anyone happy. Once it's clear to all that we still pay a membership fee, still have free movement of labour and are still bound by EU regulations then why would any leaver support that? Pretty sure that the only reason some presented that as an option was because they didn't believe the consequences of what they were saying when presented with a choice between the sad facts and the attractive lies being peddled. As for the remainers if we're left with a 52% that turn out to accept unrestricted European immigration and accept Brussels' regulations then we're going be furious that we've given up up seat at the top table for no apparent reason. That said we're pretty much furious anyway so perhaps a solution that gives us 90% what we want but re-badged as the Brexit that was voted for, is the best that we can hope for. It's probably whet Prime minister 2.0 (Code-name Boris) will probably deliver but it'll be a hard sell to his own supporters.

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chaggle
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by chaggle » Tue Jun 28, 2016 3:47 pm

Tony Williams wrote:
chaggle wrote:The status quo as it stands right now is that we are full members of the EU - that's the status quo I'm talking about.

There has been talk of parliament ignoring the referendum and there has been talk of re-running it. Both of these are dodgy in the extreme.

This way we will have at least attempted to fulfill the aim of the referendum result. If they don't like it -
We can do whatever we like in the way of ignoring or re-running referendums (not that I think that either would be a good idea) until we invoke Article 50. That then starts the timer running for the UK's departure and there does not appear to be any way of stopping it. So if we want to stay in the EU we must avoid triggering Article 50. But until we do, the EU isn't interested in starting negotiations, according to what they seem to be saying. So what you are proposing seems to fall foul of Catch 22.
The plan as I envisage it would ensure that we never got anywhere near article 50.

The proposed deal would be worded such that it is highly unlikely to be voted - probably all you would need to do would be to stipulate that it allowed freedom of movement of people and continued contributions to the EU. The referendum would reject the deal therefore defaulting by inference to the status quo.

It would not be a repeat referendum - it would be a new one on a new proposal, the people would have been consulted and they had rejected what would have been proposed as the only workable solution.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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