Brexit consequences

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bindeweede
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by bindeweede » Mon Jan 29, 2018 5:27 pm

The situation appears to get more complicated and difficult almost daily.
The Chief Minister of Gibraltar has said he is ready to veto parts of the Brexit deal that Theresa May agrees if it does not work in the territory’s favour.

Speaking exclusively with The Independent Fabian Picardo said he would not accept anything in the deal that was detrimental to Gibraltar’s business or social care systems.

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:44 am

Matt wrote:
Mon Jan 29, 2018 5:23 pm
To be fair Morocco was Spanish before Morocco existed. or French. or British depending where and when your Tardis lands
...and much of Spain and Portugal belonged to the Muslim Moors for centuries (Al-Andalus)... and before Homo Sap arrived Spain was the last home of the Neanderthals!

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:45 am

bindeweede wrote:
Mon Jan 29, 2018 5:27 pm
The situation appears to get more complicated and difficult almost daily.

The Chief Minister of Gibraltar has said he is ready to veto parts of the Brexit deal that Theresa May agrees if it does not work in the territory’s favour.

Speaking exclusively with The Independent Fabian Picardo said he would not accept anything in the deal that was detrimental to Gibraltar’s business or social care systems.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 83946.html
I somehow doubt that Gibraltar has a veto.

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by bindeweede » Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:51 am

It was only a matter of time before the report was leaked.
The government's new analysis of the impact of Brexit says the UK would be worse off outside the European Union under every scenario modelled, BuzzFeed News can reveal.

The assessment, which is titled “EU Exit Analysis – Cross Whitehall Briefing” and dated January 2018, looked at three of the most plausible Brexit scenarios based on existing EU arrangements.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardell ... wgE9bQ5v20

Still plenty of time for "reassessments" of course.

ETA. A recent analysis from Ian Dunt.
In truth, the Buzzfeed leak doesn't tell us anything we didn't already know. It's a bit less severe than the Treasury analysis from before the referendum, but it's playing in the same sandpit. It's broadly in line, if a little more moderate, than most of the analysis conducted before and after the referendum.

The important thing about the leak is not really what it says but where it comes from. This was birthed not in a Remainer alcove of the Treasury, but in the Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU) itself.
http://politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/ ... unarguable

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:12 am

bindeweede wrote:
Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:51 am

The important thing about the leak is not really what it says but where it comes from. This was birthed not in a Remainer alcove of the Treasury, but in the Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU) itself.

http://politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/ ... unarguable
Yes indeed - that rather undermines the usual Project Fear response. I noticed that even Rees-Mogg couldn't say anything stronger than "forecasts are usually wrong". Yes, they are; reality may turn out to be better - or worse. But we need something to plan with and help us prepare for likely eventualities.

The government's response was disingenuous as well: complaining that the report didn't include their "preferred option" when nobody has a clue what that is, let alone whether or not the EU would agree to it. :roll:

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by chaggle » Tue Jan 30, 2018 2:26 pm

Tony.Williams wrote:
Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:45 am
bindeweede wrote:
Mon Jan 29, 2018 5:27 pm
The situation appears to get more complicated and difficult almost daily.

The Chief Minister of Gibraltar has said he is ready to veto parts of the Brexit deal that Theresa May agrees if it does not work in the territory’s favour.

Speaking exclusively with The Independent Fabian Picardo said he would not accept anything in the deal that was detrimental to Gibraltar’s business or social care systems.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 83946.html
I somehow doubt that Gibraltar has a veto.
I don't understand what he's saying at all. What does he mean by 'veto'? Does he mean that he won't allow some parts to even be in the final deal at all? Or that they won't apply to Gibraltar? :con

Picardo is a very clever man and he must realise that what goes into the final deal is largely up to the EU rather than the UK and Gibraltar wil just have to live with what's agreed. What on earth else are they going to do ?
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by bindeweede » Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:42 am

A brief summary of the situation as David Allen Green sees it.

http://jackofkent.com/2018/01/where-are ... on-brexit/

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:04 pm

About the only mitigating factor in this looming disaster is that it is not in the EU's interests for the UK to be hurt too badly. They do want us to keep buying their products after all. So while they will be keen to demonstrate that leaving the EU is a costly and painful exercise, they won't want to see us crippled.

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by bindeweede » Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:40 pm

Recent article from The Economist. A northern English town offers a glimpse of life when migrants leave.

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:44 am

Apparently I've reached my "article limit" for the on-line Economist (surprising, I don't recall having accessed it before) so I can't read it. However, I gather it concerns Harrogate which is about as atypical for a northern town as you will find: it is very up-market, housing is very expensive, and it regularly places highly in "best place to live in England" lists.

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by chaggle » Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:44 am

It's about a spa town rather than a 'northern' town (think Bath, Cheltenham).

Its relative affluence means it is heavy in industries like hospitality, retail and care homes - industries in which a particularly high proportion of the workers are immigrants.

The article illustrates how a small net outflow of immigrants has affected the labour market with many shops and care homes advertising vacancies.
Every year since 2012 more foreigners have left Harrogate than have arrived, according to official figures. These estimates are far from perfect, but the town already exhibits the characteristics of a place lacking migrants—and shows what other parts of Britain can expect if the national trend continues.

One is a tighter labour market. On the high street, dozens of shops display help-wanted notices. Care homes, of which the town has several, have seen a jump in vacancies. Waiters are in high demand. Costas, a Greek barman, has had three jobs in the past few months. When a branch of the Ivy, a fancy restaurant, opened in November it sucked in roughly 100 staff from local eateries, says the manager of a pizza joint. Unemployment has fallen to 3.6%, below the national and regional levels, allowing some workers to drive harder bargains. Though real median wages in Harrogate have not changed much since 2014, at the lower end they have risen by 9%.
Many will see this rise in the lowest wages as a positive aspect of Brexit.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:28 am

chaggle wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:44 am
It's about a spa town rather than a 'northern' town (think Bath, Cheltenham).
Ah, I see - a shortage of servants!
Many will see this rise in the lowest wages as a positive aspect of Brexit.
If that happens (without any problematic unintended consequences), it would be good. I've always thought that there's something wrong with a tax 'n spend system which encourages employers to pay lower wages by subsiding the employees' income. Increasing the minimum wage to match the "living wage" is a worthy target.

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by bindeweede » Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:59 pm

I have no idea about the accuracy.
FARMERS have had to leave thousands of tonnes of fresh fruit and vegetables to rot in fields because of the fall in the number of workers coming to Scotland from the EU since the UK voted for Brexit.
.........
The National Farmers Union (NFU) has surveyed Scottish farmers about the “threats facing your businesses as a result of possible labour shortages” which it says have been “compounded by negotiations to leave the EU”.

The results of the survey – which are expected to make difficult reading for UK Government rural affairs minister Michael Gove – will be announced on Thursday by NFU Scotland President Andrew McCornick at the union’s AGM.

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by bindeweede » Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:46 pm

And on a less serious note, David Schneider's (latest) Brexit Blame List. ;)

Image

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:38 am

A couple more could be added:

To blame: young people, who overwhelmingly want to Remain.

Not to blame: old farts, who overwhelmingly want to Leave yet will be dead before the worst effects kick in.

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