Brexit consequences

Tony.Williams
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Mon May 21, 2018 7:32 am

Even a broken clock is right twice a day!

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chaggle
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by chaggle » Mon May 21, 2018 7:40 am

Damn that's annoying - agreeing with him. The only nit I can pick is that he is talking about leaving "Europe" which we're not.

I also agreed with Piers Morgan this morning which is even worse. He said that we appeared to want to go from being "in with a lot of opt-outs" to "out with a lot of opt-ins" the end result being the same which surely ain't gonna work.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

Tony.Williams
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Mon May 21, 2018 2:25 pm

chaggle wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 7:40 am
the end result being the same
Except that now we have a say in the EU's policy and lawmaking, once we're out we won't.

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bindeweede
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by bindeweede » Wed May 23, 2018 7:56 pm

A new article relating to foreign investment in the UK. But the commentators are only considered sort of mildly experts, obviously, and even if reasonably reliable, we all know how dependable experts are. And the article seems to fit in directly with the thread title.
Third – and largely unreported – there was a staggering decline in foreign direct investment into the UK in 2017. OECD data released in April showed a drop in FDI into OECD countries overall, but within this the amount flowing into the UK economy last year, both into productive capacity and acquisitions, declined by 90%. This was despite the fact that the fall in sterling since the referendum made British businesses much cheaper to buy.

Low investment is a major reason why productivity has been so poor in the UK since the financial crisis, a trend accentuated since the referendum. After a brief pick-up late last year, output per hour went down again in the first quarter.
https://infacts.org/brexit-uncertainty- ... nvestment/

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bindeweede
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by bindeweede » Wed May 23, 2018 11:55 pm

James O'Brien and his famous Van Driver interview.

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chaggle
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by chaggle » Thu May 24, 2018 1:45 pm

This guy should know what he's talking about...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... van-rogers
Rogers said he despaired of “people professing themselves free traders who have only a hazy understanding about multilateral, regional and bilateral free trade deals, have never negotiated one – but know it’s straightforward, once one has left the EU.”
Rogers, who resigned in January 2017, said all current schools of thought on Brexit, including remainers wishing to reverse the referendum result via a new vote, were “fantasies or incoherent and muddled thinking”.
Not very positive to say the least. I looked for what he thought should happen and came up only with this...
Rogers hinted there may still be a permanent deal to be done where the UK would drop some of its red lines in exchange for “quasi-single market membership, paying something for it, living under [European court of justice] jurisprudence and jurisdiction in goods, but disapplying the fourth fundamental freedom, free movement of people.”

He said the EU would have to weigh the cost of dividing the “four freedoms” and the benefits of a close deal with a major strategic partner.
A) We (the UK Government) are not pursuing that or anything like it

B) If we did would the EU go for it - separating the four freedoms has been a red line for them

C) Would Brexiteers be happy with that solution - probably not - who knows? But they are unlikely to be happy with any feasible solution that doesn't seriously compromise the well being and security of the nation - so we should probably ignore what they think.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Thu May 24, 2018 2:26 pm

I would be very surprised if, at the end of this long and painful process, anyone at all was happy with the outcome.

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bindeweede
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by bindeweede » Fri May 25, 2018 10:04 pm

Peter Kellner on Polling Analysis and Brexit.
The effects of demographic changes since the referendum are growing. Bluntly, older, mainly Leave, voters are dying—and younger, mainly Remain, voters are joining the electorate. There is a real prospect that if the people were given the final say on Brexit, they would vote for the UK to stay in the European Union.
(Leaves my brain a bit boggled, I'm afraid.)

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/blog ... -to-remain

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Matt » Sun May 27, 2018 8:43 am

chaggle wrote:
Thu May 24, 2018 1:45 pm
A) We (the UK Government) are not pursuing that or anything like it

B) If we did would the EU go for it - separating the four freedoms has been a red line for them

C) Would Brexiteers be happy with that solution - probably not - who knows? But they are unlikely to be happy with any feasible solution that doesn't seriously compromise the well being and security of the nation - so we should probably ignore what they think.
I don't think we're pushing it because even the most delusional of government Quitling has figured out that Poland is not going to accept a deal where insurance brokers in London can ply their trade in Warsaw but plumbers from Warsaw can't ply their trade in London. And that's just one example of 27 vetoes that would need to be overturned before they could strike that deal. Not that realising this stops them pushing that pablum for consumption by the useful idiots who give them a mandate.

Yet if such a fantasy were to come to reality then I believe a large proportion of the Quitling faction would be happy with it.

It was my assessment inferred from various polls e.g. that separating the four freedoms, so that we could "have our cake and eat it" was the outcome supported by the largest faction by far or the leave side.
Best I could come up with was that out of a representative 25 people, 12 wanted to stay, one wanted to leave and have nothing to do with the EU, one wanted to leave the EU but remain in the EEA or similar whilst 11 voted for us to dictate new terms based on free trade without free movement. Digging further into those 11, 4 would prioritise keeping free trade even if that meant accepting free movement. 7 would prioritise putting a stop to free movement even if that meant losing free trade.

The jurisdiction of the ECJ was not a great factor in the referendum. It seem to me that only Theresa May ever mentioned it, and that was when she was campaigning on the Remain side.

Of course the cynic in me wonders if those stoking this fire may be less happy with any arrangement that left EU law affecting London's status as the money laundering capital of the world.

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Thu May 31, 2018 11:35 am

I see that after holding steady for a long time after the referendum, opinion polls have recently been shifting. Now, instead of 52% voting leave, about the same percentage would vote to remain. However, that is not because leavers have changed their minds - it is mainly due to many of the former "don't knows" saying they would now vote remain.

And leavers are dying off at a faster rate, of course... :v

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bindeweede
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by bindeweede » Mon Jun 04, 2018 10:57 pm

David Allen Green

3m3 minutes ago

"Every step of Brexit, from the attempt to have A50 notified by prerogative, to the falsehoods about sectoral reports, and to the delays of votes and shortened debates, has been - in effect - in contempt of parliament."

He's not actually anti-Brexit. But he does seem to care about.....well, LAW.

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chaggle
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by chaggle » Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:40 am

https://news.sky.com/story/european-bus ... t-11395908

This one is doing the rounds.

Essentially, the EU's export trade deals with the rest of the world unsurprisingly depend upon the exported goods actually being from the EU - or at least a defined percentage of those goods.

Of course when we leave. any portion of those goods which are made in the UK won't qualify as EU - so the rest-of-the-world importers of those goods won't accept them under the terms of the deal.

What else can the EU do but advise their exporters to avoid sourcing parts from the UK - which they are now doing.

Of course a) it will be the EU 'punishing' us - except that it won't be - it's the rest holding the EU to its deal.

Of course b) The leavers already knew this as they knew what they were voting for - didn't they?
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Wed Jun 06, 2018 11:18 am

chaggle wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:40 am
Of course b) The leavers already knew this as they knew what they were voting for - didn't they?
Well, they either didn't know what they were voting for or - if some of the hardline Brexiters did - they have been guilty of gross deception.

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chaggle
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by chaggle » Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:43 am

Will David Davis resign today?
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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chaggle
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by chaggle » Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:49 am

Susanna Reid on Good Morning Britain expressing astonishment and anger at the stupidity of having no plan for Brexit prior to the referendum - surely only surpassed by the stupidity of those who voted leave knowing there was no plan.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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