Brexit consequences

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bindeweede
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by bindeweede » Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:48 am

"The top 40 horrors lurking in the small print of Theresa May’s Brexit deal."

Published less than a couple of hours ago in The Spectator. Some exaggeration? Selective quoting? Deliberate misunderstanding? I don't know. But "Steerpike"'s 40 Horrors make for odd reading, considering May and her Cabinet are promoting the Withdrawal Agreement. I wonder if they all read all of the 585 pages.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... pean-union

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/t ... exit-deal/

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:04 pm

A relatively unbiased summary from Auntie: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46237012

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Sun Nov 18, 2018 9:28 am

bindeweede wrote:
Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:48 am
"The top 40 horrors lurking in the small print of Theresa May’s Brexit deal."

Published less than a couple of hours ago in The Spectator. Some exaggeration? Selective quoting? Deliberate misunderstanding? I don't know. But "Steerpike"'s 40 Horrors make for odd reading, considering May and her Cabinet are promoting the Withdrawal Agreement. I wonder if they all read all of the 585 pages.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... pean-union

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/t ... exit-deal/
The Spectator has also published the government's response (good for them!): https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/t ... 0-horrors/

Sadly I cannot read either, as I am not a subscriber...

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by bindeweede » Sun Nov 18, 2018 10:45 am

Tony.Williams wrote:
Sun Nov 18, 2018 9:28 am

Sadly I cannot read either, as I am not a subscriber...
Tony, I'm not a subscriber either. But the links to both articles now seem to be working.

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Sun Nov 18, 2018 1:34 pm

Nope - won't let me!

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by bindeweede » Sun Nov 18, 2018 6:02 pm

Tony.Williams wrote:
Sun Nov 18, 2018 1:34 pm
Nope - won't let me!
Strange. I've just checked again, and both links still work for me.
Anyway, George Peretz QC posted this brief comment on Twitter this morning, in relation to the original "Steerpike" article.
Worth a read: but unfortunate that @FraserNelson and @spectator decided to publish the original without fact-checking - many of Mr Steerpike’s errors are serious and would have been corrected by any EU lawyer. The debate is febrile enough without spreading false “horrors”.

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Croydon13013 » Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:39 am

Tony.Williams wrote:
Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:04 pm
A relatively unbiased summary from Auntie: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46237012
What most of these summaries seem to miss is the "power grab" within the UK. There's lots of bits about setting up UK authorities to replace EU stuff. But without explaining who will make up these authorities, how will they be chosen, how will they be removed? There is an opportunity here, that the Tories intend to exploit to the max, to replace not-very-democratic EU institutions with not-at-all-democratic UK organisations.
thIS sIGnaTure iS an

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by bindeweede » Sun Nov 25, 2018 8:43 pm

One person's reply to May's letter. Worth a few minutes of your time, I'd suggest. (Edwin Hayward.)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jDOXqJ ... pnmcx/view

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Mon Nov 26, 2018 9:13 am

bindeweede wrote:
Sun Nov 25, 2018 8:43 pm
One person's reply to May's letter. Worth a few minutes of your time, I'd suggest. (Edwin Hayward.)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jDOXqJ ... pnmcx/view
He's guilty of over-cooking his arguments, IMO, and if he is hoping to change minds it's bad tactics to start off by calling May a liar - that will put off the large number of people who, whatever their Brexit views, respect the efforts May has made to try to reach a solution.

He is also somewhat less than entirely honest with some of the points he makes (either that, or he hasn't done his homework). Sadly I can't seem to copy and paste from his letter, so I'll just address a few general points:

"Advisory referendum" - Parliament pledged itself to accept the result of the referendum, so May's hands were tied.

"Razor thin majority" - Parliament voted for a simple majority system, rather than a super-majority as any sensible country would require before making major constitutional change.

The above two problems lie at the heart of the situation we are now in, and neither has anything to do with May. If any one person should shoulder the blame, it's Cameron, as he was in charge.

The writer then seems to blame May for everything that's happened since, but she has been between a rock and a hard place since the day she took office. Going to either extreme would not work: pressing for Nodex would be rejected by most of the MPs; trying to stop the process would also be rejected by both main political parties who had committed themselves to implementing the result. So what was May to try to do? She has been trying to find a way to respect the result of the referendum while minimising the likely economic damage of Nodex, and has therefore come up with a compromise which (of course) pleases no-one.

The writer is also wrong in assuming that May has complete freedom of action, with the power to stop the process, rescind Article 50 etc. Nope, that would have to get through Parliament first, and then the EU.

I don't disagree with many of the points made in the letter, but overall it lacks fairness and objectivity.

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by chaggle » Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:44 am

I think she`s done stuff wrong but not necessarily what he says she did.

The big mistake she made was to implement A50 when she did.

She should have formed a working group of Brexit promoters (Fox, Davis and so on) given them some parameters to work to and told them to formulate a plan which was acceptable to all before implementing A50.

It would still be sitting now and probably for the next 20 years.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Tue Nov 27, 2018 1:28 pm

chaggle wrote:
Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:44 am

The big mistake she made was to implement A50 when she did.
Yes, that really was a leap into the unknown.

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Matt » Wed Nov 28, 2018 12:13 pm

Could have done with a prolonged Tory leadership contest where they all set out their plans for Europe and used that to get a mandate from the party instead of May become PM by default with no greater policy than "Brexit means Brexit" for nearly 2 years.

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:09 pm

That would have been better, but I suspect that it would have run into the problem May has found - that of "red lines" becoming steadily eroded in the course of negotiations. So whatever the candidates said they were going to achieve would likely prove to be unachievable.

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:55 am

I do despair of the chances of any rational debate taking place.

I happened to catch part of the press conference held by the Governor of the BoE yesterday, and what was most obvious to me was that he kept insisting that the possible financial outcomes in his report were NOT forecasts, they were worst-case scenarios - an exercise the BoE had to undertake to ensure that the financial system could cope with whatever came up.

The BBC News channel then cut to their usual news bulletin, with the newsreader starting off "The Governor of the Bank of England forecast today that the cost of Brexit would be..."

I'm sure I could hear Carney in the background, weeping with frustration.

Then the front pages of the papers this morning had the Guardian claiming that the forecast of huge losses resulting from Brexit struck a heavy blow to May's plans, while the i emphasised that May's plans had been assisted by revealing the event greater cost of a Nodexit.

:con :gh :gmc

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by bindeweede » Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:15 pm

A Video, published today.."Brexit: Facts vs Fear, with Stephen Fry" - for anyone who has not yet seen it.

(To switch to full screen, click the Full screen icon in the bottom corner of the video player.

To exit out of full screen, press Esc on your keyboard or click the Full screen icon again.)


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