Brexit consequences

Tony.Williams
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Sat Mar 16, 2019 12:40 pm

Oh, I don't think that this was anything to do with any long-term plan - May doesn't ever seem to have had one, except to stick to her deal and keep plugging away at it.

However, now she is faced (against her will) with asking the EU for an extension, and the EU is asking (reasonably enough) "for what, exactly?" an unexpected opportunity has dropped into her lap. Particularly as some of the EU players have been muttering that Parliament is in such a hopeless mess, there's no point in granting any extension other than a very long one. So now May can hold the threat of a long delay as a gun to the heads of the ERG, unless of course they vote for her deal in which case there will only be a very short administrative delay to get all the laws passed.

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chaggle
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by chaggle » Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:31 pm

I've got a feeling that her deal will be passed this time and we'll be out.

I'm probably wrong.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Sat Mar 16, 2019 2:05 pm

chaggle wrote:
Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:31 pm
I've got a feeling that her deal will be passed this time and we'll be out.
I think that there's a better than 50% probability of that.

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bindeweede
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by bindeweede » Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:15 pm

CNN's Fareed Zakaria on Brexit. Just one opinion, of course.

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Croydon13013 » Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:37 am

Tony.Williams wrote:
Sat Mar 16, 2019 2:05 pm
chaggle wrote:
Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:31 pm
I've got a feeling that her deal will be passed this time and we'll be out.
I think that there's a better than 50% probability of that.
Possible, you just can't tell what some of these insane MPs will do next. But I don't think so. My expectation for a long time now has been that we will not leave after all, in the end. I'm still feeling hopeful on that front. Anyone who has been paying attention to what the Labour front bench have actually been saying and doing, rather than what the Tory media say they are doing, will have seen the careful manoeuvring towards a "reluctant" vote to remain.
thIS sIGnaTure iS an

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:35 pm

I do hope you are right. If May fails in her effort to force the DUP and ERG to choose her deal rather than tolerate a long delay, we're likely to get maybe another year or two to think about it. And May won't be in charge.

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Croydon13013 » Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:49 pm

Tony.Williams wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:35 pm
I do hope you are right. If May fails in her effort to force the DUP and ERG to choose her deal rather than tolerate a long delay, we're likely to get maybe another year or two to think about it. And May won't be in charge.
If we end up with the Labour Party's first choice: Leaving the EU but staying in the Customs Union; then that should be good enough. It solves the Ireland problem, gives us the travel, no tariffs, etc. It won't be much different to being in the EU, but we will have left and won't have any MEPs (so Farage is out of a job).
thIS sIGnaTure iS an

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bindeweede
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by bindeweede » Mon Mar 18, 2019 6:49 pm

Ian Dunt on Bercow's decision.
It destroyed the government's strategy. All May's parliamentary chickens had come home to roost. Her constant disrespect towards parliament, her attempts to bully it into submission, had triggered a counter-attack from the Speaker at the worst possible time. There is now basically no chance for her to hold another vote this week.
https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/0 ... exitinterv

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:39 am

As has been observed for some time (with even more force now), had the Brexit process appeared in a fictional political thriller a few years ago, it would have been dismissed as ludicrously unrealistic, too ridiculous even to be satire.

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bindeweede
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by bindeweede » Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:42 pm

HOT NEWS! "Uri Geller sends Theresa May BIZARRE Brexit warning."
On Britain leaving the EU, Mr Geller wrote: “I feel psychically and very strongly that most British people do not want Brexit. “I love you very much but I will not allow you to lead Britain into Brexit.

“As much as I admire you, I will stop you telepathically from doing this - and believe me I am capable of executing it.”

Mr Geller urged the Prime Minister to cancel Brexit altogether by revoking Article 50.

He wrote: “Before I take this drastic course of action, I appeal to you to stop the process immediately while you still have a chance.

So, there we are. :thumb

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics ... emy-corbyn

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Matt » Sat Mar 23, 2019 7:43 am

bindeweede wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:42 pm
HOT NEWS! "Uri Geller sends Theresa May BIZARRE Brexit warning."
On Britain leaving the EU, Mr Geller wrote: “I feel psychically and very strongly that most British people do not want Brexit. “I love you very much but I will not allow you to lead Britain into Brexit.

“As much as I admire you, I will stop you telepathically from doing this - and believe me I am capable of executing it.”

Mr Geller urged the Prime Minister to cancel Brexit altogether by revoking Article 50.

He wrote: “Before I take this drastic course of action, I appeal to you to stop the process immediately while you still have a chance.

So, there we are. :thumb

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics ... emy-corbyn
Phew, that's sorted.

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Mon Mar 25, 2019 9:51 am

I have this horrible feeling that I am suffering from a severe case of PCA*, the symptoms being a sense of frustration and boredom if at least one dramatic twist in the situation does not occur every day. I hate to think what will happen when (if?) the present rolling crisis ends - political cold turkey will be terrible. Much in-depth counselling required... :cry:


*political crisis addiction

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Tue Mar 26, 2019 9:16 am

An analysis of poll results by the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47693645

I gather that about 80% of the voterate think that May's deal is a bad one - half of them want to leave the EU without a deal, the other half want to cancel Article 50. That leaves 20% wanting a moderate compromise. So I suppose that May could be said to have united the country - in despair :gh

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by bindeweede » Tue Mar 26, 2019 10:18 am

Ian Dunt on the consequences of last night's vote.
Revolutions, maybe because of the name, always sound like they happen overnight. But in fact they are often incremental processes. Downing Street opposed yesterday's amendment precisely because of this risk: that once MPs got a taste for control they would keep pushing for more until eventually parliament was running the government. If it keeps resisting what parliament decides, that is exactly what is likely to occur.

The irony, of course, is that this is parliament finally showing that it is truly sovereign. The exact arguments that created the Brexit result might be the ones which finally provide a way of resolving it.
https://politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/03/26 ... appens-now

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bindeweede
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by bindeweede » Fri Mar 29, 2019 4:37 pm

Parliament votes 286-344, rejecting Theresa May's Brexit deal for a *3rd time*.

So what happens next???

Apparently, she is going to try a 4th time next week.
Despite losing for a third time she indicated that she did not believe her deal is dead, saying: "This Government will continue to press the case for the orderly Brexit that the result of the referendum demands."

Downing Street sources today indicated they are likely to have yet another crack at putting the Prime Minister's deal to MPs in a "meaningful vote".

Sources pointed out that her deal has now (finally) got more support than any of the rival 'indicative vote' options that were put forward last week.

It's been suggested a vote could happen towards the end of next week.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... r-14204486

:gh

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