General Election

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chaggle
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General Election

Post by chaggle » Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:10 am

8th June
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

Tony.Williams
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Re: General Election

Post by Tony.Williams » Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:04 pm

I think I'm suffering from political shock fatigue.

And we have the prospect of Le Pen winning before that...

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chaggle
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Re: General Election

Post by chaggle » Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:35 pm

She's going to walk it. There is no effective opposition.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

Tony.Williams
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Re: General Election

Post by Tony.Williams » Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:52 pm

chaggle wrote:She's going to walk it. There is no effective opposition.
Yep - should be a dead cert... :?

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chaggle
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Re: General Election

Post by chaggle » Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:04 am

Here's an interesting angle.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... ebook-post
Theresa May decided to call a snap general election because she feared Jeremy Corbyn was on the verge of resigning, Downing Street sources have said.

There had been growing expectations the Labour leader would stand down after what was predicted to be a bad performance for the party in local elections on 4 May.
I wonder how Labour would be looking now if Keir Starmer or Hillary Benn were leader?
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

Croydon13013
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Re: General Election

Post by Croydon13013 » Wed Apr 19, 2017 1:10 pm

2015 General Election will result in a hung parliament, 2016 referendum will vote remain, Hilary will become US Prez, etc.
chaggle wrote:She's going to walk it. There is no effective opposition.
Anything can happen now.
thIS sIGnaTure iS an

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chaggle
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Re: General Election

Post by chaggle » Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:20 pm

Croydon13013 wrote:2015 General Election will result in a hung parliament, 2016 referendum will vote remain, Hilary will become US Prez, etc.
chaggle wrote:She's going to walk it. There is no effective opposition.
Anything can happen now.
Hmmm. I know what you mean.

But I don't think this one's going to spring any surprises.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

Croydon13013
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Re: General Election

Post by Croydon13013 » Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:28 pm

chaggle wrote: Hmmm. I know what you mean.

But I don't think this one's going to spring any surprises.
I think that you are probably wrong. And I really hope that you are wrong.

There should be lots of tactical voting this time around. Little of it to the Tories advantage. But there are still so many different factors that it is impossible to call.
thIS sIGnaTure iS an

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chaggle
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Re: General Election

Post by chaggle » Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:38 pm

One thing I'm hearing (a lot) is that remainers are thinking that if May is given a big enough majority to enable her to face down her loonies, she will be able deliver a softer Brexit.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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Re: General Election

Post by Tony.Williams » Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:57 am

I think that this election could be very intriguing. There are signs that the Brexit issue is cutting across the traditional party lines, and could distort the usually-expected results quite considerably - but to what effect is far from clear. Will the Lib Dems get squeezed again, or will they be seen as the last refuge for unhappy Remainers of all parties? Will the Lib Dems, Greens and maybe others agree not to fight each other? Will the SNP maintain their dominance, or will the revived Scottish branches of the UK parties stage something of a comeback? The SNP will undoubtedly include some commitment to indyref2, but I've heard it suggested that the Tory manifesto might include a commitment not to hold indyref2 for a period of time.

And finally, will the pollsters manage to improve on their dire performance of the past couple of years?

This could turn out to be a long thread....

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chaggle
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Re: General Election

Post by chaggle » Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:43 am

Add to that some random ramblings...

Those remainers who are prepared to abandon their usual tribal affinity and vote purely on Brexit don't know which way to vote for the best. Of those who think they do already - some are going with May and some will vote tactically to try to defeat her. That is the case in our household.

There will be more floaters this election than usual. ATM those floaters who would vote tactically for Labour or Lib Dem will do so in spite of their leaders who are both lame ducks.

It would really help if May would say categorically what she wants out of the Brexit negotiations. I'm hearing two sides; that she will use a comfortable majority to overcome her loonies and attempt to deliver the softest possible Brexit, and, that she will use a comfortable majority to drive through the hardest Brexit imaginable if that's what the EU (who will ultimately decide our fate) dictate.

What a mess.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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Re: General Election

Post by bindeweede » Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:56 am

chaggle wrote: What a mess.
Yes, indeed. And little to gain from placing blame, but Cameron must be top of the list.

Most likely result is May with majority of 80+, then, having called a GE when she said several times she wouldn't and it was a bad idea, she will work towards the opposite of what she was campaigning for (half-heartedly) less than 12 months ago.

But Corbyn thinks he can win, so we'll just have to wait and see. Interesting times.

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Re: General Election

Post by Matt » Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:50 am

I found this quite fun http://uk.isidewith.com/results/3075952296 - results seem to be fairly close to my preconceptions.

So I should be voting Lib Dem were it not for tactical issues. My constituency has been solidly blue for as long as I've been alive and whatever little hope of changing that rests with Labour.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/cons ... /E14000899

Normally I'd eschew tactical voting, preferring to play the long game. The argument being that by voting for the Lib Dems I'd be pushing them up the rankings and making it easier for future voters to consider voting for them. However this election is dominated (for me) by more immediate issues and so Labour will be getting my vote.

Croydon13013
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Re: General Election

Post by Croydon13013 » Thu Apr 20, 2017 1:16 pm

Matt wrote:I found this quite fun http://uk.isidewith.com/results/3075952296 - results seem to be fairly close to my preconceptions.
My result is ridiculous. http://uk.isidewith.com/results/3078570014 - I do not agree at all with the SNP. There were no questions about Scottish independence.
thIS sIGnaTure iS an

Matt
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Re: General Election

Post by Matt » Thu Apr 20, 2017 1:31 pm

Croydon13013 wrote:
Matt wrote:I found this quite fun http://uk.isidewith.com/results/3075952296 - results seem to be fairly close to my preconceptions.
My result is ridiculous. http://uk.isidewith.com/results/3078570014 - I do not agree at all with the SNP. There were no questions about Scottish independence.
Haha but then again they're probably not fielding a candidate in your constituency either.

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