General Election

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chaggle
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Re: General Election

Post by chaggle » Thu May 18, 2017 12:31 pm

Always worth voting, there is some (but not a lot in reality) mileage to be had from the strength of the opposition popular vote.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

Croydon13013
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Re: General Election

Post by Croydon13013 » Thu May 18, 2017 3:19 pm

chaggle wrote:Always worth voting, there is some (but not a lot in reality) mileage to be had from the strength of the opposition popular vote.
Agreed. And it allows you to say that you voted against "them" when "they" are unpopular.

But at the moment the polls are predicting an increase in the Tory vote over 2015 and even an increase in the last few weeks, so the strength of the collective opposition is not looking likely to impress.

In 2015 only 37% of those who voted, voted Conservative. 63% voted against. Polls are currently putting the Tories at around 45%, or even higher. It baffles me but it is what it is.

Labour are currently on course to get more votes than Miliband's Labour got in 2015, or Brown in 2010. But to win less seats.
thIS sIGnaTure iS an

Matt
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Re: General Election

Post by Matt » Thu May 18, 2017 4:34 pm

Croydon13013 wrote: In 2015 only 37% of those who voted, voted Conservative. 63% voted against. Polls are currently putting the Tories at around 45%, or even higher. It baffles me but it is what it is.

Labour are currently on course to get more votes than Miliband's Labour got in 2015, or Brown in 2010. But to win less seats.
CON 36.9
LAB 30.4
UKIP 12.6
LD 7.9
SNP 4.7
GRN 3.8

Src http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results

36.9 % Tory plus 12.6% UKIP = 49.5% BlueKIP

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bindeweede
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Re: General Election

Post by bindeweede » Tue May 30, 2017 9:42 pm

New video from the ‘Can’t Be Arsed’ Party.

(To switch to full screen, click the Full screen icon in the bottom corner of the video player.

To exit out of full screen, press Esc on your keyboard or click the Full screen icon again.)


Tony.Williams
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Re: General Election

Post by Tony.Williams » Wed May 31, 2017 8:34 am

bindeweede wrote:New video from the ‘Can’t Be Arsed’ Party.
Seemed to be going quite well, but they lost their nerve in the final sentence :roll:

Croydon13013
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Re: General Election

Post by Croydon13013 » Wed Jun 07, 2017 11:20 am

I find it interesting that the polls have never been more diverse. In the last few days they have been giving a Tory lead over Labour of anything from 10 points (May landslide) to 1 point (SNP hold balance).

The LibDumbs are predicted to increase their seats up to around 18 or 20, or perhaps to collapse down to only 3 MPs.

The only thing that they all have in common is a shift towards Labour and away from every other party.

Whatever the result tomorrow the pollsters have done a very poor job again.

I have a, er, not good, track record on making political predictions (almost as if I don't have psychic powers). So I'm going to predict a Tory majority and hope that I'm wrong again. But it does look most likely.

However it also looks as if there will be lots of tactical voting and that this will work against the May party. Therefore I can't see the LibDs getting crushed as some think will happen. Even though the polls are predicting that Clegg will lose his seat to Labour and that Tom Brake will get beaten by the Tory in Carshalton and Wallington (next door to me, local issues regarding corruption and recycling make him vulnerable). Surely there will be marginal Tory/Lib seats where the Brexit issue and swing to Labour will, tactically, put a LibDumb in? And are they really going to fail to get any of those Scottish seats back?
thIS sIGnaTure iS an

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chaggle
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Re: General Election

Post by chaggle » Wed Jun 07, 2017 12:35 pm

What chances a hung parliament?

If so LibDem and SNP would certainly between them hold the balance.

Would they insist on a vote on the outcome of negotiations as a condition of forming a coalition?

Incidentally the EU appears to want a comfortable May majority. They think it's the best way to get a sensible outcome without her loonies being able to press for no deal. I know a fair few voters (many who would never have voted Conservative in the past) who feel the same and will vote Conservative for that reason.

The EU also don't seem interested in an anti-Brexit coalition - they've had enough of us - they want us out.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/reuters/2017 ... on-eu.html

EU chief executive Jean-Claude Juncker will find her a "bloody difficult woman", May has said. Yet a drop in her Conservatives' lead caused concern in Brussels as they do not want her weakened nor do they want an anti-Brexit government.


EU Brexit negotiators fear a 12-seat majority she inherited leaves May, who opposed Brexit, vulnerable to pressure from party hardliners who reject the EU demands and would rather she walk out without agreed divorce terms.
The idea that a new government could try to reverse the referendum result is also unappealing to Brussels, where even Britain's traditional allies would rather see the back of a troublesome and internally divided partner than face more upheaval.
The risk of talks collapsing increasingly worries some of those preparing to negotiate even if the official EU line is that such a scenario is highly improbable as it would mean mayhem for businesses and citizens on both sides but more for the British.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

Croydon13013
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Re: General Election

Post by Croydon13013 » Wed Jun 07, 2017 1:33 pm

Interesting points Chaggle.

It's either a Tory majority or a hung parliament. There's no way that the polls are so wrong that Labour will have a majority. The best that Labour can hope for is the 40 to 50 SNP MPs holding the balance of power. It's also very unlikely that the Lib Dems will make any difference. If the Tories are just short of an absolute majority they can rely on the Unionists to prop them up. If Labour are short then they will look to the Nationalists before the LD. It's a multi-party nightmare if the 5 to 15 Yellow Tories are needed to form a Govt.

In contrast to your experience of people voting to allow May to negotiate Brexit, I know people who voted Tory in 2015 who will vote for anyone but Tory in 2017 because of Brexit. In 2015 the right-wing meme was that a vote for Cameron avoided a coalition which was the worst possible thing that could happen. It seems that this time around many people who fell for that BS now think that anything, including a coalition, is better than Brexiteers negotiating with the EU. But overall the polls are predicting more people intending to vote Tory than in 2015 so, even though that is largely a swing from UKIP, it is a mixed picture.

I think that the reasons for the EU preferring to negotiate with the Tories are mixed. Would you rather oppose a team lead by the delusional and clueless David Davies or by Sir Kier Starmer?
thIS sIGnaTure iS an

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chaggle
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Re: General Election

Post by chaggle » Wed Jun 07, 2017 2:22 pm

Yep - some will vote for the Tories for the reasons I have given (I know an ex labour candidate who is considering it) but many will change from Tory as well.

I think the EU have more-or-less discounted a non-Tory government so the two outcomes they can see are a strong and a weak May government. And of those two they would prefer a strong one that will be reasonable and conceded things like payments, free movement and so on in return for a trade deal.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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Re: General Election

Post by Tony.Williams » Wed Jun 07, 2017 4:48 pm

Croydon13013 wrote: In contrast to your experience of people voting to allow May to negotiate Brexit, I know people who voted Tory in 2015 who will vote for anyone but Tory in 2017 because of Brexit. In 2015 the right-wing meme was that a vote for Cameron avoided a coalition which was the worst possible thing that could happen. It seems that this time around many people who fell for that BS now think that anything, including a coalition, is better than Brexiteers negotiating with the EU.
The real irony of the last couple of years is that the unexpected Tory victory of 2015 was the author of all of that party's misfortunes ever since: with an absolute majority, there was no way that Cameron could avoid implementing the promised referendum, and the cack-handed Remain campaign did the rest of the damage.

It is hard to see how history will regard Cameron's reign as anything other than a humiliating disaster.

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Re: General Election

Post by Matt » Wed Jun 07, 2017 5:29 pm

Tony.Williams wrote:It is hard to see how history will regard Cameron's reign as anything other than a humiliating disaster.
By comparison with his successor?

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Re: General Election

Post by Tony.Williams » Wed Jun 07, 2017 9:19 pm

Matt wrote:
Tony.Williams wrote:It is hard to see how history will regard Cameron's reign as anything other than a humiliating disaster.
By comparison with his successor?
The next 24 hours or so is Stage 1 in determining that. If May fails to win a majority she will have one of the shortest and most disastrous prime ministerships in history. If she gets through it, then she will be judged on the success of Brexit (or more realistically, how well she has minimised the damage).

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Re: General Election

Post by Matt » Thu Jun 08, 2017 11:48 am

Tony.Williams wrote:
Matt wrote:
Tony.Williams wrote:It is hard to see how history will regard Cameron's reign as anything other than a humiliating disaster.
By comparison with his successor?
The next 24 hours or so is Stage 1 in determining that. If May fails to win a majority she will have one of the shortest and most disastrous prime ministerships in history. If she gets through it, then she will be judged on the success of Brexit (or more realistically, how well she has minimised the damage).
Well I've done my bit. Swapped my vote with a lady from Glastonbury so she'll be casting my LibDem vote in a constituency where the Lib Dems have a chance of taking over a Conservative seat, and I've cast her Labour vote in a constituency where the Labour vote is in second place.

So for the first time ever, living is this rotten blue borough, I have some hope that my franchise might make a small difference.

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chaggle
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Re: General Election

Post by chaggle » Thu Jun 08, 2017 12:27 pm

Matt wrote:
Tony.Williams wrote:
Matt wrote:
Tony.Williams wrote:It is hard to see how history will regard Cameron's reign as anything other than a humiliating disaster.
By comparison with his successor?
The next 24 hours or so is Stage 1 in determining that. If May fails to win a majority she will have one of the shortest and most disastrous prime ministerships in history. If she gets through it, then she will be judged on the success of Brexit (or more realistically, how well she has minimised the damage).
Well I've done my bit. Swapped my vote with a lady from Glastonbury so she'll be casting my LibDem vote in a constituency where the Lib Dems have a chance of taking over a Conservative seat, and I've cast her Labour vote in a constituency where the Labour vote is in second place.

So for the first time ever, living is this rotten blue borough, I have some hope that my franchise might make a small difference.

Well done.

Let's hope that the lady from Glastonbury isn't too stoned to remember to vote in the right way - or at all.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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polomint38
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Re: General Election

Post by polomint38 » Thu Jun 08, 2017 12:37 pm

Voted
But I am currently in Westminster, a large Tory majority, probably won't make a difference.

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