So much for the youthquake

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Tony.Williams
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So much for the youthquake

Post by Tony.Williams » Mon Jan 29, 2018 8:20 am

Possibly shouldn't have been the Word of the Year.... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42747342

The interesting question is - what does this mean for pollsters trying to predict the outcome of the next election?

Croydon13013
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Re: So much for the youthquake

Post by Croydon13013 » Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:31 am

I'm sceptical about that article.

It says: "one polling organisation suggested that turnout among 18 to 24-year-olds went up by as much as 16 percentage points, another suggested an increase of 12 points." But then one poll by "the British Election Study" conducted face-to-face, says otherwise.

I'm not convinced that this survey is more accurate. One reason for the surprise result in the 2017 General Election was the young people that nobody was talking to and thus the establishment didn't realise that they were going to turn out and vote Labour. It seems that this poll has simply failed to find them again.

I've just watched a Sky News item on the same subject. They are almost saying that the election result wasn't the election result. It's just wishful thinking by the Tories. "Oh, thank God, Corbyn isn't popular after all. One survey says so."

"Youthquake" is just a silly word and exaggerates the phenomenon, but something happened last year and it hasn't gone away yet.
thIS sIGnaTure iS an

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