A second referendum - or a general election?

Croydon13013
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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Croydon13013 » Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:02 pm

More will resign. Some are missing from the front bench. Mordaunt has been playing with her phone; she'll resign.

More importantly Corbyn has adopted the sensible position on this that I always knew was what we would end up with:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-46200010
Jeremy Corbyn says the withdrawal agreement and political declaration represent a "huge and damaging failure".
He says the government has negotiated a "botched deal" that breaches its own red lines.
The withdrawal agreement, he says, "does not meet" Labour's six Brexit tests.
The withdrawal deal is a "leap in the dark", but he tells MPs that leaving the EU without a deal is "not a real option".
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chaggle
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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by chaggle » Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:09 pm

Isn't everyone saying that?
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

Croydon13013
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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Croydon13013 » Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:24 pm

chaggle wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:09 pm
Isn't everyone saying that?
Not everyone. Not only do a substantial chunk of the Tory Party and the UKIPers still want a "hard" Brexit. But it seems likely that there are a handful of Labour MPs who are prepared to vote for May's crazy worst-of-both-options compromise.

And lots of people kept doubting the Corbyn Labour position. I think he's got it exactly right. Reluctantly dragged to a position of no Brexit despite wanting to respect the decision of the millions of Labour voters who voted to leave.
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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Tony.Williams » Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:18 pm

Croydon13013 wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:24 pm
And lots of people kept doubting the Corbyn Labour position. I think he's got it exactly right. Reluctantly dragged to a position of no Brexit despite wanting to respect the decision of the millions of Labour voters who voted to leave.
Has he explicitly said that? I've not picked up anything along the lines of "Corbyn says the UK should stay in the EU".

If he did, I would agree that would be the most desirable outcome - but would it get through Parliament?

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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Matt » Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:46 pm

The interesting thing is that we have three options where our politics is evolved to handle binary choices. If an MP shared my preference of no brexit over the withdrawal agreement over no deal and was presented with just the option to accept or reject the withdrawal agreement should they approve it to prevent the horror of no deal or reject it in the hope of no brexit. The final decision may not be made by votes but by game theory...

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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Tony.Williams » Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:08 pm

Matt wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:46 pm
The interesting thing is that we have three options where our politics is evolved to handle binary choices. If an MP shared my preference of no brexit over the withdrawal agreement over no deal and was presented with just the option to accept or reject the withdrawal agreement should they approve it to prevent the horror of no deal or reject it in the hope of no brexit. The final decision may not be made by votes but by game theory...
I think my head is aching....

If this ever gets to a second referendum, the suggestion I have seen is for some kind of transferable vote between the three options. Difficult to see how Parliament could handle that, though.

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chaggle
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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by chaggle » Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:19 pm

Croydon13013 wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:24 pm
chaggle wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:09 pm
Isn't everyone saying that?
Not everyone. Not only do a substantial chunk of the Tory Party and the UKIPers still want a "hard" Brexit. But it seems likely that there are a handful of Labour MPs who are prepared to vote for May's crazy worst-of-both-options compromise.

And lots of people kept doubting the Corbyn Labour position. I think he's got it exactly right. Reluctantly dragged to a position of no Brexit despite wanting to respect the decision of the millions of Labour voters who voted to leave.
Are you saying that Corbyn is now proposing no Brexit?

Has he said so in plain words?

If he hasn't he needs to.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Tony.Williams » Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:49 pm

Anyone might think that Osborne is just a teeny little bit biased...? :devil

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chaggle
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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by chaggle » Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:15 am

Tony.Williams wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:49 pm
Anyone might think that Osborne is just a teeny little bit biased...? :devil
What's that about Tony?
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Tony.Williams » Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:39 pm

chaggle wrote:
Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:15 am
Tony.Williams wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:49 pm
Anyone might think that Osborne is just a teeny little bit biased...? :devil
What's that about Tony?
Sorry - I was a responding belatedly to the last post on page 1, which is where my browser took me for some reason... :roll:

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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Croydon13013 » Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:23 am

chaggle wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:19 pm
Are you saying that Corbyn is now proposing no Brexit?

Has he said so in plain words?

If he hasn't he needs to.
It's the inevitable consequence of Labour's sensible position.

And I don't agree that he needs to. In the interests of national unity we need to carry the 52% with us. There's a really danger in giving millions of people the impression that they have been shat on by the major parties.
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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Tony.Williams » Mon Nov 19, 2018 2:06 pm

The problem as I see it is this:

There will almost certainly be no majority in parliament for a Nodex (so everyone says, anyway).

There is not likely to be a majority in parliament for the current negotiated settlement (unless the only alternatives become so obviously bad that a significant number of Labour MPs is prepared to vote for it).

The EU is not likely to soften its offer (it is coming under pressure from some countries to harden it).

Parliament is unlikely to vote for another referendum (the most problematic option politically), yet will not cancel Brexit without one.

Even if the Tories engineer a coup to replace May et al, they are not going to vote for a general election, and whoever is in charge (please God not Bojo the Clown) will be faced with exactly the same problems as the present lot.

Even if the Tories completely fall apart and commit mass seppuku, leading to a general election which gives Labour a majority, the new government will still face exactly the same problems as the present lot.

It is highly improbable that anything Labour could negotiate would meet its "six tests", since Germany and France will never give a departing member "the exact same benefits" as the members (it would be the death knell for the EU), unless, perhaps, we pay vast sums of money every year ad infinitum (and even then we would have no vote in the EU).

The worst case scenario is that the bitter wrangling is still going on in Parliament on March 29, leading to a catastrophic Nodex by accident.

I would like to find a feasible best-case scenario to suggest, but I think I would need to be on LSD or something to come up with one...

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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Tony.Williams » Fri Nov 23, 2018 6:17 pm

The more time goes by, the less likely becomes any successful attempt to stop the Brexit process. I am becoming resigned to the fact that it's probably going to happen, one way or another. In that case, it becomes a damage limitation exercise.

In these circumstances, I would rate our chances of getting more concessions out of the EU to be minimal. So (through gritted teeth) l have concluded that the optimum course of action would be to accept the negotiated Withdrawal Agreement, to give some certainty to businesses, and to focus on developing the long-term solution.

As far as I can tell, both Brexiters and Remainers have been critical of the results so far, which indicates that the government might have struck a reasonable compromise.

The difficulty is that our Dishonourable Members are totally fixated on binary results; they trawl through the details of agreements like these, ignore the bits they have no problem with, and scream "unacceptable!" when they find something they don't like. They don't look at it in the round and assess its overall impact compared with any feasible alternatives. Brexiters keep going on about delivering what the 17 million voted for and ignoring the 16 million. To them, "compromise" equals "loser!"

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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by bindeweede » Fri Nov 23, 2018 9:33 pm

An interesting, if very unsettling article today from Ian Dunt. "Brexit chaos means anything is possible." Yes, he warns against predictions, yet makes a few himself. Still worth a read..
Predictions are a silly business and people should be quite cautious before engaging in them. That is now more the case than ever, because the next few weeks of British politics is going to be more chaotic than any other in recent memory. And yet still people confidently predict what can and cannot happen.

Theresa May is going to put her deal before parliament, probably in early December. People now say she has no chance of getting this through, and indeed it looks mathematically improbable, given she has no majority, all opposition parties have rejected it and it has been attacked by dozens of her own MPs.

But ruling it out is unwise. May has a knack for perseverance. She has the CBI on side - just - and business preparing to get out there and express support for the deal. Once it's signed off in Brussels, the EU will swing behind her - a horrible spectacle of fake alliances. The message is reassurance, steady she goes, let's just get past March, and reassuring figures will be recruited to deliver it. Each wavering MP will be given a bespoke scare story - the Brexiters told that voting it down will mean no Brexit, the Remainers that it'll mean no-deal.
"Treat any confidence with scepticism."

http://politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/11/23/ ... s-possible

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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Tony.Williams » Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:47 pm

I see that a cross-party group of MPs is going to try to amend the forthcoming Brexit bill to rule out a Nodexit.

Unless I'm being more than usually thick, there seems to be a logical flaw in this. As far as I can see, the only way to stop a Nodexit is for the majority to vote in favour of something else. If every other option fails to be accepted, then we get a Nodexit by default on 29 March, no matter how many people vote against it. :con

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