A second referendum - or a general election?

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chaggle
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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by chaggle » Fri Nov 30, 2018 10:27 am

Has anyone worked out what they want to happen on 11th Dec - MPs to reject or accept the withdrawal agreement? I've no idea. :con

And why are they even talking about a televised debate between May and Corbyn? What´s the point? :con
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Tony.Williams » Fri Nov 30, 2018 10:48 am

I have heard that there may be a series of votes in the form of amendments to the Bill approving the agreement, each amendment putting forward a different option: Norway, Canada, or whatever. Some suggestion that what is said to be Labour's position - permanent membership of a single market and a customs union - might get more support than anything else.

May's strategy seems to be to persuade the voterate of the merits of her cause, in order to put constituency pressure on the MPs. Not looking too promising so far, but who knows?

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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by bindeweede » Fri Nov 30, 2018 11:18 pm

Tory minister Sam Gyimah resigns in protest at Theresa May's withdrawal deal.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... ssion=true

And will there be more..?

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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Tony.Williams » Sat Dec 01, 2018 9:52 am

The clamour for a second referendum appears to be getting louder. The vote(s) on 11 December are looking increasingly unpredictable. Sobering to consider that this is the most crucial decision for the future of the country since the UK joined the EU.

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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Croydon13013 » Mon Dec 03, 2018 12:54 pm

bindeweede wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 11:18 pm
Tory minister Sam Gyimah resigns in protest at Theresa May's withdrawal deal.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... ssion=true

And will there be more..?
Robert Peston says that Gyimah resigned because he couldn't take any more emails from Gavin Barwell:

https://insidecroydon.com/2018/12/02/mi ... ll-emails/

Teresa May's bag carrier (and my ex-MP) strikes again. He'll be made a peer soon.
thIS sIGnaTure iS an

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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Tony.Williams » Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:40 pm

A handy guide to the possibilities should May's proposal be voted down:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46393399

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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by bindeweede » Sat Dec 08, 2018 10:17 pm

And another dolly down.

"MP Will Quince resigns over Brexit deal in latest blow to Theresa May
The Conservative MP for Colchester, Essex, said he "implores" Theresa May to go back to the European Union."

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... r-13707257

He was ministerial aide to Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson.

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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by chaggle » Sun Dec 09, 2018 7:10 am

Much is being made of the dangers of having a second referendum - betraying democracy, no-one would ever bother to vote again, leave voters would be very pissed off etc. and I suspect that for some (the tribal, faith based leave voters) that would be the case.

In our 'early doors' group at the local (20ish people I suppose) I know that at least 4 of them who voted leave now regret it and would vote to remain, one other says it would be a betrayal of democracy etc. and one says - sod it, let's just start world war three. A couple of leave voters seem to think we won't actually leave and don't seem that bothered about it - I get the sense that they've had their fun - now lets get back to real life.

But say there was a majority to remain, particularly a convincing one and we remained, what would they actually do? I suppose they could riot in the streets for a bit - that sort of thing - but that probably wouldn't be too bad and they'd soon get over it - particularly when the weather gets bad next winter. Then they could carry on moaning about it for the next 40 years - we're used to that so again we could cope.

I suppose Farage and his lot could re-start UKIP and some kind of far-right could become stronger, that could be a bit of a problem.

It seems to me that it might be less problematic than other courses we might follow.

Any thoughts?
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Tony.Williams » Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:35 am

At this stage, every option is a bad one. So I would try to pick the one least likely to harm the country in the long term, which as far as I can see would be a vote to remain.

However, I suspect that people are so tired of, if not confused by, the pros and cons of the different options that if it came to voting again, I would expect to see the turnout drop - which might favour Leave, as they are by definition dissatisfied with the status quo. Although I think that gut feelings have at least as much to do with how people vote as reason.

A lot might depend on the quality of the respective publicity campaigns, together with such minutiae as whether a vote takes place during university holidays or not - that could make quite a difference, depending on where students are registered to vote.

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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by chaggle » Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:36 am

Tony.Williams wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:35 am
... gut feelings have at least as much to do with how people vote as reason...
Just picking out that one, I had a beer-fuelled conversation with the world war three starter from my previous post - more of a one-way rant really with my only contribution, every 10 seconds or so, being - 'what's that got to do with the EU?' :con
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Tony.Williams » Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:13 am

Well now, this is looking interesting: the ECJ has endorsed the advice from their lawyer that a country can unilaterally withdraw its Article 50 notice of leaving the EU, and remain in the EU on exactly the same terms it enjoys at present, provided it goes through some democratic process to do so.

This must greatly strengthen the case for another referendum, in order to give voters a clear choice with a definite, as opposed to possible, option to stay in.

I think that the most important person in the country is now the Speaker (he'll love this) because, as I understand it, he has received more than a dozen bids for amendments to the Maybill, of which he can pick half a dozen (his choice) and presumably he will also decide the order in which they are considered. This looks as if it could be absolutely crucial in determining what happens next.

So, what chain of circumstances might lead to a referendum? The key point may be that a second referendum needs to be the last amendment tabled. That way, Norway, Canada, Nodexit and any other options can be swept out of the way, leaving a choice between a referendum or the Maybill. There seems to be no chance for the Maybill, which could leave a second referendum as the Last Man Standing.

Of course, as I've noted above, just having a second referendum provides no guarantee that the result will be any different. But it might be very appealing in providing a solid option to those who are sick and tired of the whole process and just want everything to return to normal.

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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by chaggle » Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:55 am

Tony.Williams wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:13 am
Well now, this is looking interesting: the ECJ has endorsed the advice from their lawyer that a country can unilaterally withdraw its Article 50 notice of leaving the EU, and remain in the EU on exactly the same terms it enjoys at present, provided it goes through some democratic process to do so.

This must greatly strengthen the case for another referendum, in order to give voters a clear choice with a definite, as opposed to possible, option to stay in.

I think that the most important person in the country is now the Speaker (he'll love this) because, as I understand it, he has received more than a dozen bids for amendments to the Maybill, of which he can pick half a dozen (his choice) and presumably he will also decide the order in which they are considered. This looks as if it could be absolutely crucial in determining what happens next.

So, what chain of circumstances might lead to a referendum? The key point may be that a second referendum needs to be the last amendment tabled. That way, Norway, Canada, Nodexit and any other options can be swept out of the way, leaving a choice between a referendum or the Maybill. There seems to be no chance for the Maybill, which could leave a second referendum as the Last Man Standing.
Is that process definitive Tony? Where did you find out about it?
Tony.Williams wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:13 am

Of course, as I've noted above, just having a second referendum provides no guarantee that the result will be any different. But it might be very appealing in providing a solid option to those who are sick and tired of the whole process and just want everything to return to normal.
For me (as a good skeptic :ang) the process is as important as the result. It is the way the current situation has been arrived at which has me seething - the lies, the ignorance, the unknown quantity of one of the options.

A second referendum would settle it for me. I wouldn't like a second leave result but I would accept it.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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chaggle
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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by chaggle » Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:50 am

On BBC just now - they are going to postpone tomorrow's vote.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Tony.Williams » Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:46 pm

chaggle wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:55 am

Is that process definitive Tony? Where did you find out about it?
I don't think anything is definitive about the present process - that's just my understanding of what could happen. Of course, the whole issue of whether May will be defenestrated by her colleagues is buried within that but is relatively unimportant (any new PM will face exactly the same dilemmas). If she takes the gamble of asking parliament to vote for a general election (a real gamble with unknown consequences) any new government would also face the same issues (although without all of the baggage loaded on May).
For me (as a good skeptic :ang) the process is as important as the result. It is the way the current situation has been arrived at which has me seething - the lies, the ignorance, the unknown quantity of one of the options.

A second referendum would settle it for me. I wouldn't like a second leave result but I would accept it.
Yes - but if we go for a second referendum and the answer is the same, we will probably end up with a Nodexit as there would be no time to negotiate anything else. Timing comes into this - how long to hold a referendum? How long to hold a general election?

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Re: A second referendum - or a general election?

Post by Tony.Williams » Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:52 pm

chaggle wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:50 am
On BBC just now - they are going to postpone tomorrow's vote.
All bets are off - again.

But a postponement is just wasting time unless the EU goes against what it has been firmly saying and agrees to reopen negotiations. And why should they? As far as they're concerned, it's our problem.

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