Brexit Plan B?

Tony.Williams
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Brexit Plan B?

Post by Tony.Williams » Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:30 pm

In the light of today's developments, I think it's worth starting a new thread.

So... the Maybill rejected by such a resounding total that it seems very unlikely that any deal will gain a majority in Parliament in the foreseeable future. Particularly since the EU has reaffirmed that it is not willing to reopen the negotiated deal.

That leaves few options. The default one - Nodexit - seems the most likely even though there is no majority for it in the Commons. A remarkably large number of MPs seem unable to grasp that you can't vote against something, to prevent Nodexit you need to vote for something else.

The other obvious alternative is to accept that nothing else is going to be adopted before the end of March. Even a deferral of Article 50 might not buy enough time to do anything else (especially if the government loses tomorrow's confidence vote, triggering a General Election). Even holding another referendum would take longer than the time available. Yet the EU will only permit a limited extension, as they have their own elections in May. So whoever is in government by the end of March may be forced to rescind Article 50 to buy a lot more time to reconsider the whole issue, as the only available alternative to Nodexit.

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Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by Tony.Williams » Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:25 am

What could happen next? The usual helpful guide from Auntie Beeb: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46393399

PS MPs must have a curious anatomy - the eyes go one way while the nose goes in the opposite direction. :gmc

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chaggle
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Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by chaggle » Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:35 am

I've given up trying to work it out.

I have no idea what's going to happen nor what should happen.

It's an unholy mess - as predicted.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by Tony.Williams » Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:48 am

I gather that one German source was quoted as using a traditional proverb to justify accepting Nodexit:

"Better a horrible end than horror without end”.

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chaggle
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Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by chaggle » Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:39 am

Tony.Williams wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:48 am
I gather that one German source was quoted as using a traditional proverb to justify accepting Nodexit:

"Better a horrible end than horror without end”.
Happy little proverb eh? :???:

I'm thinking that Nodexit might be our destiny.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by bindeweede » Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:52 pm

Quote from The Times, 5pm today.
European Union officials are examining plans to delay Brexit until 2020 after Germany and France indicated their willingness to extend withdrawal negotiations because of Britain’s political turmoil.

Diplomats and officials are preparing a longer than envisaged extension of the EU’s Article 50 exit procedure because the extent of Theresa May’s defeat in the House of Commons last night.

Previous planning had centred on a three-month delay to Brexit from March 29 until the end of June but now, according to multiple sources, EU officials are investigating legal routes to postpone Britain’s withdrawal until next year.
Rest is behind the paywall.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news ... -j20f9rm3h

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Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by Matt » Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:52 pm

You gotta laugh or else you'll cry

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i97FkO3d_lU

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Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by Tony.Williams » Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:21 am

bindeweede wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:52 pm
Quote from The Times, 5pm today.
European Union officials are examining plans to delay Brexit until 2020 after Germany and France indicated their willingness to extend withdrawal negotiations because of Britain’s political turmoil.

Diplomats and officials are preparing a longer than envisaged extension of the EU’s Article 50 exit procedure because the extent of Theresa May’s defeat in the House of Commons last night.

Previous planning had centred on a three-month delay to Brexit from March 29 until the end of June but now, according to multiple sources, EU officials are investigating legal routes to postpone Britain’s withdrawal until next year.
Rest is behind the paywall.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news ... -j20f9rm3h
It would surely be simpler - and require nobody's permission - for the UK to cancel the Article 50 letter and then take whatever time is necessary to reconsider what to do about the EU. However, probably politically impossible.

Basically, further action seems caught between two stools: the politically impossible and the practically catastrophic. :devil

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chaggle
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Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by chaggle » Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:47 am

I'm pretty sure I heard some time ago (like a couple of years) that it would not be possible for the UK to withdraw A50 and then re-present at some time in the future. I can't remember if it was legally or politically not possible.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by Croydon13013 » Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:56 am

chaggle wrote:
Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:47 am
I'm pretty sure I heard some time ago (like a couple of years) that it would not be possible for the UK to withdraw A50 and then re-present at some time in the future. I can't remember if it was legally or politically not possible.
The EU ruled that A50 can be withdrawn at any time. Any member state can trigger A50, there is no reference to doing twice. It would seem legally possible.

Politically? Extending this mess indefinitely?

I think it will be either extension (if all member states allow) or scrapping the whole thing. I remain convinced, as I have been saying for a long time, that a crash out "hard Brexit" will not happen.
thIS sIGnaTure iS an

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Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by Tony.Williams » Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:44 pm

I suspect that if we did withdraw A50 until parliament agreed what Brexit means (apart from "Brexit") we would never re-submit it, 'cos they can't agree on anything.
I remain convinced, as I have been saying for a long time, that a crash out "hard Brexit" will not happen.
It can be deferred for a while by extending the deadline, but can only be stopped if A50 is cancelled, or some other deal is agreed - first by parliament, then by the EU.

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Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by Tony.Williams » Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:54 pm

The latest lie by the Brexiters (including David Davis) is that if we crash out without a deal, we can negotiate a free-trade deal during the two-year transition period. :fp

THE TRANSITION PERIOD IS PART OF THE DEAL, MORONS. NO DEAL = NO TRANSITION PERIOD!

P.S. sorry for shouting, but my tolerance of these jokers is wearing very thin :devil

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chaggle
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Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by chaggle » Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:25 pm

I think a no deal, hard Brexit, crash out (do they all mean the same thing?) is unlikely.

Already 'deals' are being done - WRT UK expats living abroad, keeping planes flying and so on.

No deal is likely to mean thousands of micro-deals with no overall structure.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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chaggle
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Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by chaggle » Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:37 pm

I've been reminded that the EU would not allow indefinite revocation and re-submission of A50 which would allow the UK to extend the leaving process indefinitely.

A new mandate (from the electorate?) would be needed before we could resubmit.

(sorry Matt - lost your post)
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by bindeweede » Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:12 pm

It's hard to keep up with developments. Big word "IF", of course.
Britain’s election watchdog is drawing up contingency plans to hold a second referendum and to participate in the forthcoming elections to the European parliament if Brexit is postponed.

EU and UK officials are privately examining what might happen if an extension to Article 50 were agreed that lasted beyond the present European parliamentary session.

A number of the UK’s 73 seats have been reallocated in anticipation of Brexit for the elections in May but the EU would be open to legal challenge if British voters were not represented in the parliament while the UK was still an EU member. If the government withdrew Article 50 before May the UK would also have to have representation in the parliament.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brex ... -srnnldn20

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