Brexit Plan B?

Tony.Williams
Posts: 1088
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:05 am
Location: Still somewhere in England
Contact:

Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by Tony.Williams » Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:00 pm

So, May has allegedly dropped the ball into Corbyn's court - an interesting development, and one which creates much pleasure in observing the reaction of the ERG. However, can May and Corbyn really overcome their bone-deep political convictions to co-operate? Chances are that they will fail. I gather that concern has been expressed in some quarters that May will spin out any talks until there is no time left to do anything but accept her deal. We shall see....

Matt
Posts: 944
Joined: Sun Oct 25, 2015 7:50 pm

Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by Matt » Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:30 pm

If they can just spin it out for another decade maybe I can still retire to Spain?

User avatar
Tinkerbell
Posts: 831
Joined: Sun Oct 25, 2015 7:40 pm
Location: Andalucia, Spain

Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by Tinkerbell » Thu Apr 04, 2019 3:36 pm

Matt wrote:
Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:30 pm
If they can just spin it out for another decade maybe I can still retire to Spain?
It's very nice over here, I recommend it :beer

User avatar
chaggle
Posts: 2515
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2015 10:01 am

Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by chaggle » Thu Apr 04, 2019 3:47 pm

Wish we'd never left. :-(
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

User avatar
chaggle
Posts: 2515
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2015 10:01 am

Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by chaggle » Thu Apr 04, 2019 3:56 pm

It's difficult to counter some of the arguments against having a second referendum.

'Oh yeah - right. Didn't get the result you/the elites/the establishment/the EU wanted huh?'

'Can we replay last weeks footie match because we lost it?'

'What d'you want - best of three?'

'If they hold another referendum it won't be worth me voting ever again.'
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

Matt
Posts: 944
Joined: Sun Oct 25, 2015 7:50 pm

Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by Matt » Thu Apr 04, 2019 5:59 pm

In a wild flight of fancy I considered what would happen if we applied some sort of voter political literacy test to a second referendum. Not that I'm suggesting that one side or the other were particularly more misinformed but it might be worth it to see the campaigns striving to correct any misguided and disenfranchising notions that they suspect their supporters might have picked up from somewhere.
Can you imagine Nigel Farage standing on a podium and declaring. "I'm sure you all know exactly how much immigrants are of a drain on our public services and economy but in case you're asked before you vote the answer they're looking for is that the average EU immigrant offers a net annual benefit of £2600 to the UK treasury"

Tony.Williams
Posts: 1088
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:05 am
Location: Still somewhere in England
Contact:

Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by Tony.Williams » Thu Apr 04, 2019 8:21 pm

Matt wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 5:59 pm
In a wild flight of fancy I considered what would happen if we applied some sort of voter political literacy test to a second referendum.
I actually dread to think what the result would be if our MPs were tested on their knowledge of Brexit.

A couple of days ago I was watching a Commons Brexit debate on TV and one of the Northern Irish MPs made reference to the Brady Amendment (concerning replacing the Backstop with "alternative arrangements"). Behind the speaker, I could clearly see an MP turn to a colleague and ask "what's that?"

Now I don't expect our MPs to be geniuses, but I do expect them to keep up with the basics of the most important issue they will ever deal with.

Tony.Williams
Posts: 1088
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:05 am
Location: Still somewhere in England
Contact:

Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by Tony.Williams » Sat Apr 06, 2019 8:54 am

Another excellent, thought-provoking post by Chris Grey: http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com

Tony.Williams
Posts: 1088
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:05 am
Location: Still somewhere in England
Contact:

Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by Tony.Williams » Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:17 am

And another: http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com ... -from.html

The EU is protecting itself from Brexiter dishonesty and delusion - and throwing Britain a lifeline

extract from conclusion:
So the humiliation for Britain is not, primarily, in having had to ask the EU for an extension. It is that both the need for the extension and the way the EU approached the decision to grant it reflect the fact that Brexiters have made Britain dishonest, untrustworthy, chaotic, incompetent, and delusional.

But it’s actually even more humiliating than that. The ultimate truth of what the EU have decided is that – far from needing to ‘punish’ us – they are willing to be kind to us. We have been given the chance – carefully managed, in case we abuse it – to get our act together and to drop all the lies and fantasies.

User avatar
chaggle
Posts: 2515
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2015 10:01 am

Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by chaggle » Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:41 pm

I gather that the government has instructed the civil service to cease planning for 'no deal' forthwith.

I don't know how significant that is.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

Tony.Williams
Posts: 1088
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:05 am
Location: Still somewhere in England
Contact:

Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by Tony.Williams » Sat Apr 13, 2019 8:06 am

Well, we have a six-month gap before approaching the cliff edge again, so some of the planning could be out of date by then, and obviously there would be no point in stocking-up on medicines and other perishable goods in the meantime.

Croydon13013
Posts: 1454
Joined: Sun Oct 25, 2015 7:48 pm

Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by Croydon13013 » Mon Apr 15, 2019 11:04 am

chaggle wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:41 pm
I gather that the government has instructed the civil service to cease planning for 'no deal' forthwith.

I don't know how significant that is.
Preparing for the no deal exit scenario has cost the country £billions. One Govt Department alone has spent at least £4b, every penny of which is now wasted. To start over with a new Halloween date would have cost billions more.
thIS sIGnaTure iS an

Tony.Williams
Posts: 1088
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:05 am
Location: Still somewhere in England
Contact:

Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by Tony.Williams » Sat Apr 27, 2019 12:53 pm

Some fascinating public opinion survey results: four options were selected (cancel A50, no-deal exit, Maydeal, or softer Brexit) and people were asked to rank them, first to last.

The one which got the most first-places was cancelling A50, closely followed by Nodexit; the two compromise outcomes were way behind.

HOWEVER:

The one which got the most last-places was cancelling A50, closely followed by Nodexit; the two compromise outcomes were way behind.

Conclusion: there is very little interest in any sort of compromise; the nation is divided into all-in or all-out camps, quite evenly balanced. As things stand, a second referendum could go either way, with the result probably even closer than before. We might as well save ourselves a lot of time and money and just flip a coin instead...

More seriously, given that there is no clear winner emerging, we should really follow the principle that in the case of an effective draw, the status quo should prevail.

I suspect also that most Nodexiters fondly imagine that a "clean break" means that all the aggro instantly goes away. However, we MUST have some kind of trading relationship with the EU, but the EU won't play ball unless we first sort out what we owe them in the way of outstanding legal commitments, how we are going to treat each other's citizens in residence, and of course what to do about the Irish border - all of which takes us straight back to May's Withdrawal Agreement which was been rejected three times....

Tony.Williams
Posts: 1088
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:05 am
Location: Still somewhere in England
Contact:

Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by Tony.Williams » Sat Apr 27, 2019 2:41 pm

PS I should have added that a "clean break" Brexit will also of course require every one of the trading agreements the EU has with other countries to be renegotiated, as well as any new ones we might want - which will take more than a few years.

User avatar
bindeweede
Site Admin
Posts: 3666
Joined: Sun Oct 25, 2015 3:45 pm
Location: Hertfordshire, UK

Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by bindeweede » Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:02 am

Tony, thanks so much for your perceptive comments. I really wish I had something significant to add. But I don't. In my more depressed moments, I find a drop of the Irish supportive, at least temporarily.

Post Reply