Brexit Plan B?

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chaggle
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Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by chaggle » Sun Apr 28, 2019 11:10 am

Yes please keep going Tony.

The fact that I don't answer doesn't mean I'm not interested - it means that words cannot express my dismay at what's going down.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

Tony.Williams
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Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by Tony.Williams » Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:40 pm

I must admit that these days I feel so numbed by it all that I often don't feel up to the job of commenting on events. I just look on in horrified fascination at the very slow-motion, multiple car-crash which is well underway.

The problem is that our current generation of leading politicians are very small people, not big enough to look over the self-imposed barriers generated by their various sectarian interests.

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Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by Tony.Williams » Sun May 05, 2019 1:11 pm

So - we now have the ludicrous situation that, despite Parliament having refused to accept a Nodexit and having voted (more narrowly) against both a customs union and a second referendum, and with Corbyn and May allegedly having seen the light and desperate to agree a deal, there is still no sign of a solution. Tory Brexiters are stating they will veto any kind of customs union while Labour are insisting on one. Both sides seem to believe that doubling-down on their demands and shouting twice as loud as before will result in their opponents giving up. How stupid can they get? :gh

Tony.Williams
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Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by Tony.Williams » Tue May 07, 2019 2:14 pm

There seems to be revived interest in some quarters on changing our FPTP system in order to encourage greater participation in elections.

Here's an idea - why not permit voters to give negative votes, to be deducted from the positive ones? That should liven things up :twisted:

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Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by Tony.Williams » Mon May 27, 2019 10:43 am

Tony.Williams wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2019 12:53 pm
Some fascinating public opinion survey results: four options were selected (cancel A50, no-deal exit, Maydeal, or softer Brexit) and people were asked to rank them, first to last.

The one which got the most first-places was cancelling A50, closely followed by Nodexit; the two compromise outcomes were way behind.

HOWEVER:

The one which got the most last-places was cancelling A50, closely followed by Nodexit; the two compromise outcomes were way behind.

Conclusion: there is very little interest in any sort of compromise; the nation is divided into all-in or all-out camps, quite evenly balanced. As things stand, a second referendum could go either way, with the result probably even closer than before. We might as well save ourselves a lot of time and money and just flip a coin instead...

More seriously, given that there is no clear winner emerging, we should really follow the principle that in the case of an effective draw, the status quo should prevail.

I suspect also that most Nodexiters fondly imagine that a "clean break" means that all the aggro instantly goes away. However, we MUST have some kind of trading relationship with the EU, but the EU won't play ball unless we first sort out what we owe them in the way of outstanding legal commitments, how we are going to treat each other's citizens in residence, and of course what to do about the Irish border - all of which takes us straight back to May's Withdrawal Agreement which was been rejected three times....
So, the EU elections have confirmed the situation described above. Public opinion remains more or less split down the middle, but the two sides have shuffled away from any sort of compromise, so it's becoming a straight fight between a no-deal exit or a new referendum (although if there is one, the outcome is far from certain).

Much now depends on who the Tories choose as the new PM. If s/he cannot command a majority in a confidence vote, we would normally be facing a general election shortly thereafter - but both Tories and Labour are terrified of that, as they could get wiped out.

I haven't a clue what is likely to happen and, what is worse, I am no longer sure of what I'd like to happen. All options are bad, in one way or another. We have managed to create a Right Royal Mess with no apparent solution.

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Re: Brexit Plan B?

Post by Tony.Williams » Mon May 27, 2019 2:16 pm

Another good analysis by Chris Grey: http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com ... ction.html
These European election results are the first electorally tangible crystallization of the harder and more polarised divisions which have grown since the 2016 Referendum. They unequivocally give the lie to the absurd claim that the 2017 General Election meant that ‘80% of voters’ had given their support to Brexit. They also undermine the idea, based on that General Election result, that the dominance of the two main parties had been reasserted. In that sense, the results point to an underlying, potentially structural, shift in British political culture.

Such shifts are easy to ignore when the focus is mainly on the daily unfolding events of Brexit. But they are crucial to those events. Indeed, in some ways, the entire Brexit process can be read as a manifestation of those structural shifts, rather as earthquakes are manifestations of the underlying movements of tectonic plates. What happens in the next few months will determine whether the Brexit earthquake turns out to be ‘completely devastating’ or merely ‘very damaging’.

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