Brexit consequences

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chaggle
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by chaggle » Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:55 am

Robert Peston writes well - much better than he speaks.

Here he is (quoted from facebook) on his analysis of the Chequers meeting...
But my sources have given the game away. They concede that what the prime minister obtained from the Chequers away-day was a deal to hold her warring cabinet and party together, for a few more weeks at least.

What she hasn’t necessarily got is a plan that will have any traction with other European Union governments.

Which means that the speech she will give at the end of next week revealing and confirming all this will have to be the speech of her life - because it will have to seduce government heads across the Continent and it will simultaneously have to persuade her own MPs that she isn’t betraying them.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

Croydon13013
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Croydon13013 » Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:09 am

chaggle wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:19 pm
Would the UK actually be forced to implement a border between NI and the republic? The EU might have to but do we?

What if we just didn't?
Yes. I'd like more information on the permutations.

Obviously this wouldn't satisfy the racist-right as it would allow "millions" of illegals to flood in (as if they would bother with post-brexit mad max Britain). A big part of the lunacy was around "taking control of our borders" and I can't see the Brexiteers being happy with a "leave it to the EU" approach.
thIS sIGnaTure iS an

Tony.Williams
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Sat Feb 24, 2018 9:47 pm

chaggle wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:19 pm
Would the UK actually be forced to implement a border between NI and the republic? The EU might have to but do we?

What if we just didn't?
I presume that the EU would force the Republic of Ireland to impose import controls on any goods from the UK, in terms both of charging any EU import duties and ensuring that the goods comply with EU standards in terms of safety, quality, etc etc. Which will involve a major delay at the border for those exporting to the Republic. The UK doesn't have to reciprocate, but that's a separate issue.

I gather that the Chequers meeting resulting in agreement over "divergence", which is code for a Brexit tending towards the hard side, since it means that UK standards may diverge from EU ones - which implies border controls.

There seems to be some softening from Labour, with Thornberry stating that the UK would have to be in a form of customs union with the EU - not THE customs union, but one very similar. Commentators were speculating that if Labour wished to adopt a soft Brexit in marked contrast to the Tories, they could wipe out the remnant of the Lib Dems, since being pro-EU is about all they have going for them. Their problem, of course, is that a very clear majority of Labour constituencies - the traditional working class ones - voted enthusiastically for Brexit. So the general advice to Labour seems to be to continue their current ambiguity and avoid disturbing their enemies while they are in the process of making a complete hash of things.

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Tue Feb 27, 2018 11:43 am

Since Labour have now put clear water between themselves and the Tories on the customs union issue (not before time), it will be very interesting to watch how this develops - both in terms of opinion polls and parliamentary votes.

If the rebel Tories in combination with Labour succeed in defeating the government, and if that brings down said government (two very big "ifs" the way things look at the moment) that will cause centrists like me some headaches. Do I vote Tory to keep out a hard-left Labour government which would probably do considerable damage to the economy? Or do I vote Labour to keep a customs union and thereby avoid what would otherwise be considerable economic damage? Or do I stay at home and open a bottle of something with anaesthetic properties instead?
Decisions, decisions... :gh

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chaggle
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by chaggle » Tue Feb 27, 2018 12:15 pm

I think Labour would have been well advised to keep quiet TBH. If they state policy, those policies can be attacked. Their traditional voters largely voted to leave and might well see this as a betrayal and switch allegiance to the Tories who they see as carrying out their wishes.

I can see the Tory party imploding at some point and Labour should have simply let them get on with it and been ready to pounce.

I have no idea where all this is going...
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:09 pm

chaggle wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 12:15 pm
I have no idea where all this is going...
It is our misfortune to live in interesting times... :???:

Croydon13013
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Croydon13013 » Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:29 pm

chaggle wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 12:15 pm
I think Labour would have been well advised to keep quiet TBH. If they state policy, those policies can be attacked. Their traditional voters largely voted to leave and might well see this as a betrayal and switch allegiance to the Tories who they see as carrying out their wishes.

I can see the Tory party imploding at some point and Labour should have simply let them get on with it and been ready to pounce.
I think that this is a good demonstration of just how honest and "real" Corbyn is. He is not playing a cynical game with our future to achieve power as the Tories are doing. It is obvious that the only way forward is a customs union of some sort so he has said as much. If left in power then May, Davies and their fellow clowns will end up with a customs union eventually.
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Croydon13013
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Croydon13013 » Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:42 pm

Tony.Williams wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 11:43 am
Do I vote Tory to keep out a hard-left Labour government which would probably do considerable damage to the economy?
:lol Have you been reading the Daily Mail again?

We have a Govt that has more than doubled the national debt; it has done more damage to the economy than any other Govt in living memory while also imposing "austerity" which is causing further long-term damage.

Nothing that Corbyn and Labour are proposing is "hard-left". Nothing he is planning takes us anywhere radical. Taxes for the rich and corporations that will still be lower than they were under Thatcher (taxes for the poor still higher than under Thatcher too). Re-nationalising the railways? Everyone should be able to aspire to own their own home? That's to the right of the German Christian Democrats; hardly a left-wing platform. None of Labour's policies are to the left of any of the European liberal democracies and to suggest otherwise is to fall for the lies of the far-right capitalists who have too much power in the UK.
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Tony.Williams
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:04 pm

Croydon13013 wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:42 pm
Nothing that Corbyn and Labour are proposing is "hard-left". Nothing he is planning takes us anywhere radical. Taxes for the rich and corporations that will still be lower than they were under Thatcher (taxes for the poor still higher than under Thatcher too). Re-nationalising the railways? Everyone should be able to aspire to own their own home? That's to the right of the German Christian Democrats; hardly a left-wing platform. None of Labour's policies are to the left of any of the European liberal democracies and to suggest otherwise is to fall for the lies of the far-right capitalists who have too much power in the UK.
Well, if they get the chance we will have to see what they do once in office, rather than what they say to get elected.

The curious thing about "austerity" is that the government is still spending pretty much the same as it did before that started. Osborne said a lot, but actually did relatively little to reduce public spending.

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:37 am

I see Bojo the Clown is at it again: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43221934
Boris Johnson: Irish border row being exploited to stop Brexit
Has anyone else noted this newly fashionable use of the term "exploited"? It's cropped up elsewhere in the news recently:
NRA’s LaPierre: Gun-Control Advocates Are Exploiting Florida Shooting
What "exploited" seems to mean in this kind of context is something like this:

"OK, you've got a cast-iron argument against my position to which I have no sensible response, so I'll say you're exploiting it because that sounds bad."

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Matt » Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:29 pm

As I understand it the customs union defines a border around itself. If Northern Ireland is outside the customs union and the rest of Ireland is inside the customs union then it is required of Ireland that they put in place customs controls to ensure that goods crossing that border have the appropriate tarif applied. I would expect that if we want to trade under WTO rules we have a similar obligation by dint of that agreement.

A practical example of the issues. I travel to Belfast to meet my friend from Dublin. He's bought a BMW from Germany on my behalf and we intend to exchange car and money "halfway"

So he pays no tariff to buy the car from Germany as Ireland and Germany are both in the customs union. The Good Friday Agreement assures frictionless trade across the border to Northern Ireland and so no tariff payable there. And of course should Northern Ireland have a border with the mainland of Britain the DUP would verily open the neck of Theresa May and defecate down it. So no chance of of a border or tariffs being paid there. Yet the customs union expects a 20% tariff to be paid on motors cars exported to 3rd countries whatever devious route those goods take.

This is not to mention no tariff barriers. If my friend from Dublin runs a chicken shop, I could barter for my BMW with frozen chicken breast sourced from the USA that doesn't meet EU food safety standards. Where should that be checked?

Quite the conundrum. As I understand it if we don't come to some sort of arrangement, the border with Northern Ireland becomes the border of the Customs Union and we're in breach of the Good Friday agreement, our promises in the first round of negotiation are moot and we have a no deal brexit.

Rather disturbingly as this threat comes into view we see a number of arch Brexteers telling us the the Good Friday agreement has already failed. Rather indicates which of these immovable objections they expect to to fall before the irresistible force of the last Will and Testament of the people.

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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by Tony.Williams » Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:26 am

As the present shambles limps on, it becomes increasingly obvious that British politicians have no negotiating skills, no concept of compromises, of doing deals, no way it seems of sorting out priorities to focus on. I strongly suspect that this is because of our "winner takes all" voting system, which teaches politicians that you are either a total winner or a total loser; the worst possible background for engaging in these negotiations. So you just get our politicians making absurd statements about what they want, which anyone who follows this can see immediately are not going to happen. All they achieve is to irritate the EU and push them to take a harder line.

Of course, interventions from Major and especially Blair achieve nothing whatsoever, except to wind up the Brexiters and make them even more determined to get what they want.

What a mess... :gh

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chaggle
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by chaggle » Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:02 am

Matt wrote:
Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:29 pm
As I understand it the customs union defines a border around itself. If Northern Ireland is outside the customs union and the rest of Ireland is inside the customs union then it is required of Ireland that they put in place customs controls to ensure that goods crossing that border have the appropriate tarif applied. I would expect that if we want to trade under WTO rules we have a similar obligation by dint of that agreement.

A practical example of the issues. I travel to Belfast to meet my friend from Dublin. He's bought a BMW from Germany on my behalf and we intend to exchange car and money "halfway"

So he pays no tariff to buy the car from Germany as Ireland and Germany are both in the customs union. The Good Friday Agreement assures frictionless trade across the border to Northern Ireland and so no tariff payable there. And of course should Northern Ireland have a border with the mainland of Britain the DUP would verily open the neck of Theresa May and defecate down it. So no chance of of a border or tariffs being paid there. Yet the customs union expects a 20% tariff to be paid on motors cars exported to 3rd countries whatever devious route those goods take.

This is not to mention no tariff barriers. If my friend from Dublin runs a chicken shop, I could barter for my BMW with frozen chicken breast sourced from the USA that doesn't meet EU food safety standards. Where should that be checked?

Quite the conundrum. As I understand it if we don't come to some sort of arrangement, the border with Northern Ireland becomes the border of the Customs Union and we're in breach of the Good Friday agreement, our promises in the first round of negotiation are moot and we have a no deal brexit.

Rather disturbingly as this threat comes into view we see a number of arch Brexteers telling us the the Good Friday agreement has already failed. Rather indicates which of these immovable objections they expect to to fall before the irresistible force of the last Will and Testament of the people.
AFAIAA the WTO tariffs are maximums and we don't have to be applied so it's up to us if we choose to so we could leave our incoming border open to all.

The Pub Landlord (Tim Martin) has been advocating the abolition of import tariffs from the start but then he's probably permanently pissed.

https://www.jdwetherspoon.com/tims-view ... -viewpoint
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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chaggle
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by chaggle » Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:04 am

Tony.Williams wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:26 am
As the present shambles limps on, it becomes increasingly obvious that British politicians have no negotiating skills, no concept of compromises, of doing deals, no way it seems of sorting out priorities to focus on. I strongly suspect that this is because of our "winner takes all" voting system, which teaches politicians that you are either a total winner or a total loser; the worst possible background for engaging in these negotiations. So you just get our politicians making absurd statements about what they want, which anyone who follows this can see immediately are not going to happen. All they achieve is to irritate the EU and push them to take a harder line.

Of course, interventions from Major and especially Blair achieve nothing whatsoever, except to wind up the Brexiters and make them even more determined to get what they want.

What a mess... :gh
Must say that one of the few benefits of this mess is the endless opportunity to wind up Brexiters - jolly good fun.
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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chaggle
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Re: Brexit consequences

Post by chaggle » Thu Mar 08, 2018 3:48 pm

This apparently is the secret EU exit analysis. I have skimmed it but not nearly enough to understand its implications.

https://www.parliament.uk/documents/com ... iefing.pdf
Don't blame me - I voted remain :con

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